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Market Size and Pharmaceutical Innovation

Author

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  • Dubois, Pierre
  • de Mouzon, Olivier
  • Scott Morton, Fiona
  • Seabright, Paul

Abstract

This paper quantifies the relationship between market size and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry using improved, and newer, methods and data. We find positive significant elasticities of innovation to expected market size with a point estimate under our preferred specification of 0.23. This suggests that, on average, $2.5 billion is required in additional revenue to support the invention of one new chemical entity. This magnitude is plausible given recent accounting estimates of the cost of innovation of 800 million to one billion per drug, and marginal costs of manufacture and distribution near 50%. An elasticity below 1 is also a plausible implication of the hypothesis that innovation in pharmaceuticals is becoming more difficult over time, as costs of regulatory approval rise and as the industry runs out of "low-hanging fruit".

Suggested Citation

  • Dubois, Pierre & de Mouzon, Olivier & Scott Morton, Fiona & Seabright, Paul, 2011. "Market Size and Pharmaceutical Innovation," TSE Working Papers 11-232, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Mar 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:24353
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation; Market Size; Elasticity; Pharmaceuticals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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