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Market Size and Pharmaceutical Innovation

  • de Mouzon, Oliver
  • Dubois, Pierre
  • Scott Morton, Fiona
  • Seabright, Paul

This paper quantifies the relationship between market size and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry. We estimate the elasticity of innovation, as measured by the number of new chemical entities appearing on the market for a given disease class, to the potential market size represented by the willingness of sufferers of diseases in that class (and others acting on their behalf such as insurers and governments) to spend on their treatment during the patent lifetime. We find positive significant elasticities with a point estimate under our preferred specification of 25.2%. This suggests that at the mean market size an additional $1.8 billion is required in additional patent life revenue to induce the invention of one additional new chemical entity. An elasticity substantially and significantly below one-half is also a plausible implication of the hypothesis that innovation in pharmaceuticals is becoming more difficult and expensive over time, as costs of regulatory approval rise and as the industry runs out of "low hanging fruit."

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8367.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8367
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  1. Mark Duggan & Fiona Scott Morton, 2010. "The Effect of Medicare Part D on Pharmaceutical Prices and Utilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 590-607, March.
  2. Brekke, Kurt R. & Grasdal, Astrid L. & Holms, Tor Helge, 2009. "Regulation and pricing of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing or price cap regulation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 170-185, February.
  3. Shubham Chaudhuri & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Panle Jia, 2003. "Estimating the Effects of Global Patent Protection in Pharmaceuticals: A Case Study of Quinolones in India," NBER Working Papers 10159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Steven Berry & Joel Waldfogel, 2003. "Product Quality and Market Size," NBER Working Papers 9675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Arthur Lewbel & Oliver Linton, 2000. "Nonparametric Censored and Truncated Regression," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/389, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  6. Mathias Dewatripont & Lars Peter Hansen & Stephen Turnovsky, 2003. "Advances in economics and econometrics: the eighth world congress," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9557, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
  8. Richard Blundell & James Powell, 2001. "Endogeneity in nonparametric and semiparametric regression models," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/01, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Yin, Wesley, 2009. "R&D policy, agency costs and innovation in personalized medicine," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 950-962, September.
  10. Rodrigo Cerda, 2007. "Endogenous innovations in the pharmaceutical industry," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 473-515, August.
  11. John Mullahy, 1997. "Instrumental-Variable Estimation Of Count Data Models: Applications To Models Of Cigarette Smoking Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 586-593, November.
  12. Kurt R. Brekke & Tor Helge Holmås & Odd Rune Straume, 2008. "Regulation, generic competition and pharmaceutical prices: Theory and evidence from a natural experiment," NIPE Working Papers 01/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  13. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G. & Lasagna, Louis, 1991. "Cost of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-142, July.
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