Drug Prices and Research and Development Investment Behavior in the Pharmaceutical Industry
This paper argues theoretically and shows empirically that pharmaceutical R&D spending increases with real drug prices, after holding constant other determinants of research and development (R&D). Specifically, an estimated elasticity suggests that a 10 percent increase in the growth of real drug prices is associated with nearly a 6 percent increase in the growth of R&D intensity. Simulations that are based on our multiple-regression model indicate that the capitalized value of pharmaceutical R&D spending would have been about 30 percent lower if the federal government had limited the rate of growth in drug price increases to the rate of growth in the general consumer price index during the period 1980-2001. Moreover, the results suggest that a drug price control regime would have resulted in 330--65 fewer new drugs, representing over one-third of all actual new drug launches brought to the global market during that time period.
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- Baily, Martin Neil, 1972. "Research and Development Costs and Returns: The U. S. Pharmaceutical Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 70-85, Jan.-Feb..
- John A. Vernon, 2005. "Examining the link between price regulation and pharmaceutical R&D investment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-16.
- Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 23-44, Winter.
- Grabowski, Henry G. & Vernon, John M., 1994. "Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 383-406.
- Ellison, Sara Fisher & Mullin, Wallace P, 2001. "Gradual Incorporation of Information: Pharmaceutical Stocks and the Evolution of President Clinton's Health Care Reform," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 89-129, April.
- DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
- Henry Grabowski & John Vernon, 1990. "A New Look at the Returns and Risks to Pharmaceutical R&D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(7), pages 804-821, July.
- F. M. Scherer, 1993. "Pricing, Profits, and Technological Progress in the Pharmaceutical Industry," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 97-115, Summer.
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