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Leverage, liquidity and crisis: A simulation study

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  • Antoine Godin
  • Stephen Kinsella

Abstract

We study the interactions of banks and ?rms within a leverage cycle to understand how capacity utilisation and capital investment interact with funding costs, leverage by banks and ?rms, and liquidity. We show in a simulation study that when ?rms can grow and die by becoming insolvent, and when banks can grow and die as their bad debts increase to unsustainable levels, the real economy cycles around a leverage cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Godin & Stephen Kinsella, 2012. "Leverage, liquidity and crisis: A simulation study," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1205, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpas:1205
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    1. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Driffield, Nigel & Pal, Sarmistha & Roland, Isabelle, 2009. "Excess Leverage and Productivity Growth in Emerging Economies: Is There A Threshold Effect?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    4. A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
    5. Whited, Toni M, 1992. " Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    6. Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessandra Luzzi, 2006. "Do liquidity constraints matter in explaining firm size and growth? Some evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-39, February.
    7. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
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    10. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
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    12. Aivazian, Varouj A. & Ge, Ying & Qiu, Jiaping, 2005. "The impact of leverage on firm investment: Canadian evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 277-291, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jeborg:v:140:y:2017:i:c:p:70-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Corrado Di Guilmi & Laura Carvalho, 2015. "The dynamics of leverage in a Minskyan model with heterogeneous firms," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_15, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Carvalho, Laura, 2017. "The dynamics of leverage in a demand-driven model with heterogeneous firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 70-90.
    4. Laura Carvalho & Corrado Di Guilmi, 2014. "Income inequality and macroeconomic instability: a stock-flow consistent approach with heterogeneous agents," CAMA Working Papers 2014-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leverage; capital investment; capacity utilization; simulation modeling.;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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