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Analyzing the Effect of the Unfriendly Countries List of Russia on Global Trade through the Staggered Diference-in-Diferences Design in the Gravity Model

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  • Xiao Wang
  • Jun Nagayasu

Abstract

We studied the e!ect of the Russian Unfriendly Countries List (UCL) on the global trade of sanctioned countries. Applying the staggered Di!erence-in-Di!erences in the gravity model to trade data from 48 countries, we found that the UCL has adversely affected sanctioned countries’ trade with Russia but has a null effect on the investigated countries’ trade with Ukraine. Furthermore, we investigated whether UCL leads to trade diversion, that is, whether UCL countries increase their crude oil imports from other primary exporters.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Wang & Jun Nagayasu, 2025. "Analyzing the Effect of the Unfriendly Countries List of Russia on Global Trade through the Staggered Diference-in-Diferences Design in the Gravity Model," TUPD Discussion Papers 69, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    • Handle: RePEc:toh:tupdaa:69
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