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Exchange Rate Misalignment: A New Test of Long-Run PPP Based on Cross-Country Data

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  • Pan A. Yotopoulos

    (University of Florence and (emeritus) Stanford University)

  • Yasuyuki Sawada

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

We formulate and implement a new empirical procedure to examine the validity of PPP in the long-run for 153 countries by using the familiar cross-country data set of Heston, Summers, and Aten (2002). Unlike the existing studies that rely on mean reversion of real exchange rates, we explicitly examine country-specificity in the deviations of the nominal exchange rate from PPP. We find, first, that out of a total of 153 countries, 132 countries have achieved PPP within twenty years, 1980-2000 and 105 countries have attained PPP over ten years, 1990-2000. Second, according to the results, our method can be accepted as a workable shortcut of the direct, fullinformation approach of Yotopoulos (1996) that tests for long-run PPP utilizing micro-ICP data. This becomes an important characteristic of this paper since comprehensive micro-ICP data are no longer easily available. As a by-product, of the empirical validation of our shortcut approach, our empirical results are in favor of the Ricardo-Balassa-Samuelson effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan A. Yotopoulos & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2005. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: A New Test of Long-Run PPP Based on Cross-Country Data," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-318, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2005cf318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Analysis of the Behavior of the New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate: Comparison of Four Major Models," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 5(1-2), pages 1-10, March.
    5. Yasuyuki Swada & Pan A. Yotopoulos, 2005. "Corner Solutions, Crises, and Capital Controls: A Theory and an Empirical Analyas on the Optimal Exchane Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," Discussion Papers 04-037, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Giedraitis, Vincentas Rolandas & Girdenas, Sarunas & Rovas, Adomas, 2010. "Greenhouse emissions and economic recessions: Did industrial economies “Stay Cool” during the 1930s economic crisis?," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 1(1), pages 1-5, April.
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    8. Mostafa Goudarzi & Komeil Khanarinejad & Zahra Ardakani, 2012. "Investigation of the Factors Affecting Real Exchange Rate in Iran," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 4(4), pages 55-67, August.
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    10. Jovanovic, Branimir, 2007. "Calculating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Macedonian Denar," MPRA Paper 43161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Analysis of movements in the AUD/USD exchange rate: comparison of four major models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 575-580.
    12. Gábor Oblath & Andrzej Slawinski & Arno Tausch, 2006. "Monthly Report 7/2006," wiiw Monthly Reports 2006-07, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Vincentas Giedraitis & Sarunas Girdenas, 2010. "Feeling The Heat: Financial Crises And Their Impact On Global Climate Change," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 7-10, February.
    14. Maciej Holko, 2017. "Oszczędności pracowników, rozwój rynku kapitału i inwestycje zagraniczne - rządowy plan rozwoju z perspektywy postkeynesowskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 5-30.
    15. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Functional forms and PPP: new evidence for eight Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 95-98.

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