Public debt is always toxic to economic growth
This paper deals with the debt-growth relationship using several time-series tools. The idea is to find out whether the inverse relationship between these variable can be detected without imposing any functional forms for the estimating relationship and whether the relationship does indeed reflect some nonlinear features. Thus recursive correlations with different orderings of the time-series are computed using the Reinhart and Rogoff panel data. After that, recursive correlations are re-estimated with data that are cyclically adjusted to reflect the structural features of these two variables. The nature of the relationship is also scrutinized by using various variable-parameter estimation techniques (Kalman Filter, Logistic functional form and recursive estimation). Finally, some analyses of causality are carried out using these (filtered) data. The analysis clearly shows that the inverse relationship is very robust indeed and it rather supports the ``toxic debt'' hypothesis than the cyclical debt accumulation hypothesis.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2013|
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- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014.
"Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
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- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even Worse than You thought: The Impact of Public Debt on Aggregate Investment and Productivity," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_020, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- James Tobin, 1965. "The Burden Of The Public Debt: A Review Article," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 679-682, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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