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An Analysis of Ratings of Russian Banks

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  • van Soest, A.H.O.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Peresetsky, A.
  • Karminsky, A.M.

Abstract

Since the recent financial crisis, both the Russian business community and foreign investors have started to make more and more use of ratings of the reliability of Russian banks, i.e., their ability to meet interest and repayment commitments to the investors.In response to this, the number of rating agencies has increased over the past few years.In this paper, existing ratings are analyzed and compared using ordered probit models that explain bank ratings from bank characteristics such as size indicators and financial ratios characterizing profitability, or default risk on loans given.Moreover, on the basis of a survey among financial experts, models for expert ratings are constructed and results are compared to those for the agency ratings.We find that agency and expert ratings of virtual banks are largely in line with each other, but there are also some differences.For example, liquidity measures are important for agency ratings but insignificant for the expert ratings.Moreover, we find some surprising differences between expert ratings of real banks and expert ratings of virtual banks.While overdue loans are important for the virtual banks, they play no role in either the agency ratings or the expert ratings of real banks.An explanation may be that banks manage to mask the actual number of overdue loans.

Suggested Citation

  • van Soest, A.H.O. & Peresetsky, A. & Karminsky, A.M., 2003. "An Analysis of Ratings of Russian Banks," Discussion Paper 2003-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:5b60e672-da50-41be-af9c-a034d4bba368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
    2. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-261, April.
    3. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January.
    4. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aivazian, Sergey & Golovan, Sergey & Karminsky, Alexander & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2011. "An approach to ratings mapping," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 23(3), pages 13-40.
    2. Alexei Karas & William Pyle & Koen Schoors, 2010. "How do Russian depositors discipline their banks? Evidence of a backward bending deposit supply function," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 36-61, January.
    3. Ошерович Инна Львовна, 2015. "Анализ вероятностных соответствий меж ду рейтингами ведущих меж дународных компаний Moody’s, Fitch и standard&poor’s," Вестник Финансового университета, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 3 (87), pages 136-148.
    4. Alexei Karas & William Pyle & Koen Schoors, 2009. "The Effect of Deposit Insurance on Market Discipline:Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Deposit Flows," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0905, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:nea:journl:y:2017i:36:p:49-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky, 2011. "Models for Moody’s Bank Ratings," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 88-110, April.
    7. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Peresetsky, A.A. & Karminsky, A.M. & Golovan, S.V., 2007. "Russian banks' private deposit interest rates and market discipline," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    10. Пересецкий А.А., 2007. "Методы Оценки Вероятности Дефолта Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 43(3), июль.

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    Keywords

    banks; financial crisis; agencies; reliability; Russia;

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