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Performing under Pressure: Revisiting Penalty Shootouts

Author

Listed:
  • Jan van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Martin van Tuijl

    (Tilburg University)

Abstract

A penalty shootout in professional football is a tie-breaking sequence of penalty kicks. A penalty kick is a shot taken from the penalty mark, at a distance of 11 meters (12 yards) from the goal line. Only the opposing goalkeeper may attempt to prevent a score. Penalty shootouts allow for the study of the relation between performance outcomes and psychological pressure. Psychological pressure may be influenced by whether or not a team starts the sequence and may be present at individual kicks that are potentially decisive on the outcome of the shootout. This paper presents an analysis of penalty shootouts in matches for the Dutch cup competition over a period of 59 seasons. We analyze the outcomes of 291 shootouts and 2,680 individual penalty kicks from 262 of those shootouts. There is evidence of a first-mover advantage but this materializes in the early part of the sample period and not in recent years. Moreover, penalty kicks are more likely to fail under pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan van Ours & Martin van Tuijl, 2026. "Performing under Pressure: Revisiting Penalty Shootouts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260052
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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