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No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts

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  • Pipke, David

Abstract

Conflicting evidence exists regarding a first-mover advantage in soccer shootouts, where increased pressure on second-moving teams may lead to choking. While some studies support this claim, others refute it, with the lack of consensus likely due to limited sample sizes. An analysis of around 7,000 soccer penalty shootouts and 74,000 kicks finds no evidence of a first- or second-mover advantage in winning probability. Equivalence testing further rejects any deviation greater than 1.8 percentage points from a 50% win probability for first-kicking teams. A parallel analysis of ice hockey shootouts finds no significant advantage or disadvantage for either the first- or second-moving team.

Suggested Citation

  • Pipke, David, 2025. "No evidence of first-mover advantage in a large sample of penalty shootouts," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 318391, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318391
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2025.102816
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kassis, Mark & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Sutter, Matthias, 2021. "Psychological pressure and the right to determine the moves in dynamic tournaments – evidence from a natural field experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 278-287.
    2. Genakos, Christos & Pagliero, Mario & Garbi, Eleni, 2015. "When pressure sinks performance: Evidence from diving competitions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 5-8.
    3. Christos Genakos & Mario Pagliero, 2012. "Interim Rank, Risk Taking, and Performance in Dynamic Tournaments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 782-813.
    4. Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2014. "Beautiful Game Theory: How Soccer Can Help Economics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10260.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pipke, David, 2025. "Sometimes Losing Leads to Winning," SocArXiv vdpj6_v1, Center for Open Science.

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    JEL classification:

    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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