IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/str/wpaper/1711.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The long-term economic implications of BREXIT for Scotland: an interregional analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gioele Figus

    (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Strathclyde)

  • Katerina Lisenkova

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Peter G McGregor

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Graeme Roy

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • J Kim Swales

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

The analysis of this paper offers a cautionary tale about the economic cost of European disintegration. Scotland offers an interesting twist on that story as somewhere that voted to remain part of the EU but is now negatively affected, even though it is less directly exposed to EU trade than the UK, and even if it were to achieve a softer Brexit such as EEA or even full EU membership (as it has aspirations to do). The analysis includes potentially important lessons for the many nations and regions in which there exists pressures to move away from trade liberalisation and towards protectionism.

Suggested Citation

  • Gioele Figus & Katerina Lisenkova & Peter G McGregor & Graeme Roy & J Kim Swales, 2017. "The long-term economic implications of BREXIT for Scotland: an interregional analysis," Working Papers 1711, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/17-11.pdf.pagespeed.ce.GOm97xfS1V.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Caroline Halls, 2010. "Assessing the Fiscal Costs and Benefits of A8 Migration to the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-41, March.
    2. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    4. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
    5. Jonathan Wadsworth, 2015. "Immigration and the UK Labour Market," CEP Election Analysis Papers 019, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Ebell, Monique, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238, pages 31-42, November.
    7. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Crawley & Max Munday & Annette Roberts, 2018. "How serious is a devolved data deficit? A Welsh perspective," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 33(8), pages 862-876, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. Mihaela Simionescu, 2017. "The Impact Of Immigrants On The UK Economy," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 9(2), pages 31-46, June.
    4. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156, Juni.
    5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    6. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Swati Dhingra & Stephen Machin & Henry Overman, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242(1), pages 24-36, November.
    9. repec:cep:spccrr:spdorp03 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.
    11. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2016-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    12. Zylkin, Thomas, 2014. "Not all Free Trade Agreements have the same Advantages," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2014-9, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Forte, Giuseppe & Portes, Jonathan, 2017. "Macroeconomic Determinants of International Migration to the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 10802, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Chris Dawson & Michail Veliziotis & Benjamin Hopkins, 2018. "Understanding the Perception of the ‘Migrant Work Ethic’," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 32(5), pages 811-830, October.
    18. repec:cep:spccrp:03 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dirk Steffen & Ingo Pitterle, 2004. "Spillover Effects of Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 286, Econometric Society.
    20. Dawson Chris & Veliziotis Michail & Hopkins Benjamin, 2014. "Assimilation of the migrant work ethic," Working Papers 20141407, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    21. Fontagné, Lionel & Orefice, Gianluca & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Product standards and margins of trade: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 29-44.
    22. Maryam Almasifard & Sasan Torabzadeh Khorasani, 2017. "Relationship Between Domestic Production in Agricultural and Industrial Sectors and Purchasing Power by Controlling for International Trade Variables (Iran)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 244-253.
    23. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2012. "Trade Agreements and Bilateral Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Trade Effects of the EU-ACP PTA and RTAs," Discussion Papers 12/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    24. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scotland; BREXIT; CGE modelling; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirsty Hall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edstruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.