IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/str/wpaper/0807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Relative Price Sensitivity Required to Induce Rebound Effects in Response to an Improvement in Energy Efficiency in the UK Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Turner

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

In recent years there has been extensive debate in the energy economics and policy literature on the likely impacts of improvements in energy efficiency. This debate has focussed on the notion of rebound effects. Rebound effects occur when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. This phenomenon occurs through the impact of the increased efficiency on the effective, or implicit, price of energy. If demand is stimulated in this way, the anticipated reduction in energy use, and the consequent environmental benefits, will be partially or possibly even more than wholly (in the case of ‘backfire’ effects) offset. A recent report published by the UK House of Lords identifies rebound effects as a plausible explanation as to why recent improvements in energy efficiency in the UK have not translated to reductions in energy demand at the macroeconomic level, but calls for empirical investigation of the factors that govern the extent of such effects.Undoubtedly the single most important conclusion of recent analysis in the UK, led by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is that the extent of rebound and backfire effects is always and everywhere an empirical issue. It is simply not possible to determine the degree of rebound and backfire from theoretical considerations alone, notwithstanding the claims of some contributors to the debate. In particular, theoretical analysis cannot rule out backfire. Nor, strictly, can theoretical considerations alone rule out the other limiting case, of zero rebound, that a narrow engineering approach would imply. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in the Scottish regional and UK national economies. Previous work has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. Here, we carry out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where we gradually introduce relative price sensitivity into the system, focusing in particular on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. We find that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demand for energy is very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Turner, 2008. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Relative Price Sensitivity Required to Induce Rebound Effects in Response to an Improvement in Energy Efficiency in the UK Economy," Working Papers 0807, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/2008/media_140190_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brookes, Len, 1990. "The greenhouse effect: the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-201, March.
    2. Louis Beuuséjour & Gordon Lenjosek & Michael Smart, 1995. "A CGE Approach to Modelling Carbon Dioxide Emissions Control in Canada and the United States," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 457-488, May.
    3. Rose, Adam & Benavides, Juan & Lim, Dongsoon & Frias, Oscar, 1996. "Global warming policy, energy, and the Chinese economy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 31-63, March.
    4. Birol, Fatih & Keppler, Jan Horst, 2000. "Prices, technology development and the rebound effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 457-469, June.
    5. Wissema, Wiepke & Dellink, Rob, 2007. "AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 671-683, March.
    6. Glomsrod, Solveig & Taoyuan, Wei, 2005. "Coal cleaning: a viable strategy for reduced carbon emissions and improved environment in China?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 525-542, March.
    7. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    8. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    9. Saunders, Harry D., 2000. "Does predicted rebound depend on distinguishing between energy and energy services?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 497-500, June.
    10. Treyz, George I, et al, 1993. "The Dynamics of U.S. Internal Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 209-214, May.
    11. J. Daniel Khazzoom, 1980. "Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 21-40.
    12. Saunders, Harry D., 2000. "A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and Khazzoom-Brookes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 439-449, June.
    13. Hanley, Nick D. & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2006. "The impact of a stimulus to energy efficiency on the economy and the environment: A regional computable general equilibrium analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 161-171.
    14. Bergman, Lars, 1990. "Energy and environmental constraints on growth: A CGE modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 671-691.
    15. Despotakis, Kostas A. & Fisher, Anthony C., 1988. "Energy in a regional economy: A computable general equilibrium model for california," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 313-330, September.
    16. Grepperud, Sverre & Rasmussen, Ingeborg, 2004. "A general equilibrium assessment of rebound effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 261-282, March.
    17. Saunders, Harry D., 2008. "Fuel conserving (and using) production functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2184-2235, September.
    18. Thomas W. Hertel & Timothy D. Mount, 1985. "The Pricing of Natural Resources in a Regional Economy," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 64(3), pages 229-243.
    19. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 1997. "Carbon Taxes with Exemptions in an Open Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis of the German Tax Initiative," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 189-203, February.
    20. Naqvi, Farzana, 1998. "A computable general equilibrium model of energy, economy and equity interactions in Pakistan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 347-373, September.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10972 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Learmonth, D. & McGregor, P.G. & Swales, J.K. & Turner, K.R. & Yin, Y.P., 2007. "The importance of the regional/local dimension of sustainable development: An illustrative Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the Jersey economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 15-41, January.
    23. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
    24. Herring, Horace, 1999. "Does energy efficiency save energy? The debate and its consequences," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 209-226, July.
    25. Bergman, Lars, 1988. "Energy Policy Modeling: A survey of general equilibrium approaches," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 377-399.
    26. Grant Allan & Michelle Gilmartin & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner & J Kim Swales, 2009. "Economics of Energy Efficiency," Chapters,in: International Handbook on the Economics of Energy, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Semboja, Haji Hatibu Haji, 1994. "The effects of an increase in energy efficiency on the Kenya economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 217-225, March.
    28. Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 692-709, January.
    29. Allan, Grant & Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2007. "The impact of increased efficiency in the industrial use of energy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for the United Kingdom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 779-798, July.
    30. Dufournaud, Christian M. & Quinn, John T. & Harrington, Joseph J., 1994. "An Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) analysis of a policy designed to reduce the household consumption of wood in the Sudan," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 67-90, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Turner, Karen, 2009. "Negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 648-666, September.
    2. Janine De Fence & Nick Hanley & Karen Turner, 2009. "Do Productivity Improvements Move Us Along the Environmental Kuznets Curve?," Working Papers 0908, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    3. Guerra, Ana-Isabel & Sancho, Ferran, 2010. "Rethinking economy-wide rebound measures: An unbiased proposal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6684-6694, November.
    4. Sam Anson, 2009. "Rebound and disinvestment effects in oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector," Working Papers 0901, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Lecca, Patrizio & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2011. "An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2832-2841.
    6. Turner, Karen & Hanley, Nick, 2011. "Energy efficiency, rebound effects and the environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 709-720, September.
    7. G. Mandras & G. Garau, 2015. "Economy-wide rebound effects from an increase in efficiency in the use of energy: the Italian case," Working Paper CRENoS 201520, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Anson, Sam & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Rebound and disinvestment effects in refined oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3608-3620, September.
    9. Soo Jung Ha & Geoffrey Hewings & Karen Turner, 2008. "Econometric estimation of Armington import elasticities for regional CGE models of the Chicago and Illinois economies," Working Papers 0810, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE modelling; energy efficiency; rebound effects;

    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kirsty Hall). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/edstruk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.