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Partage du risque dans l'Union européenne : expériences interrégionales et internationales

Author

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  • Frédéric Zumer

    (Laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion Panthéon-Assas (LARGEPA))

  • Jacques Mélitz

    (School of Management & Languages)

Abstract

Quelle pourrait être la portée du partage du risque macroéconomique entre pays, dans l’Union monétaire européenne, face aux chocs asymétriques ? Pour tenter de répondre à cette question, essentielle par ses implications quant à la stabilité de la construction monétaire européenne, on cherche à estimer l’ampleur de la répartition du risque qui prévaut entre les régions d’un même pays, mais également entre différents pays. On en déduit alors plusieurs leçons pour l’Union monétaire. Ce sujet est exploré à partir d’un travail empirique effectué sur des données régionales, pour les États-Unis et le Canada, ainsi que sur des données nationales se rapportant à un échantillon de 23 pays de l’OCDE, qui comprend les 15 membres de l’Union européenne. Nous procédons à l’aide de notre version modifiée du modèle fondateur de Asdrubali, Sørensen et Yosha (1996), dont nous rappelons les principes. Nous mettons alors en évidence plusieurs résultats concordants du modèle révisé, qui prouvent que, même si l’abandon de la politique monétaire réduit la capacité théorique des membres de l’UE de lisser les chocs asymétriques via la politique macroéconomique, le nouveau régime dans lequel nous sommes entrés, qui génère une plus forte intégration économique, pourrait bien favoriser considérablement le lissage des chocs au travers des mécanismes de marché.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Mélitz, 2002. "Partage du risque dans l'Union européenne : expériences interrégionales et internationales," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/762, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick-Hervé Mbouombouo Mfossa, 2015. "GOUVERNANCE ECONOMIQUE ET STABILISATION DES CHOCS ASYMETRIQUES: Quel mécanisme pour une meilleure viabilité de la CEMAC ?," Working Papers hal-01213989, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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