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Inventories and sales uncertainty

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    ()

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Sara Maioli
  • Simona Mateut

We investigate the empirical linkages between sales uncertainty and firms' inventory investment behavior while controlling for firms' financial strength. Using large panels of manufacturing firms from several European countries we find that higher sales uncertainty leads to larger stocks of inventories. We also identify an indirect effect of sales uncertainty on inventory accumulation through the financial strength of firms. Our results provide evidence that financial strength mitigates the adverse effects of uncertainty.

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File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/articles/2011_003.html
File Function: First version, 2011
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Paper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011003.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision: Feb 2011
Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2011003
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  1. Guariglia, Alessandra & Mateut, Simona, 2010. "Inventory investment, global engagement, and financial constraints in the UK: Evidence from micro data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 239-250, March.
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  3. Fabio Bagliano & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2004. "The cyclical behaviour of inventories: European cross-country evidence from the early 1990s recession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2031-2044.
  4. Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Simona Mateut & Spiros Bougheas & Paul Mizen, . "Corporate trade credit and inventories: New evidence of a tradeoff from accounts payable and receivable," Discussion Papers 08/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  7. Hong Bo & Robert Lensin, 2005. "Is the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship Nonlinear? An Empirical Analysis for the Netherlands," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(286), pages 307-331, 05.
  8. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2010. "On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 286-306, April.
  9. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 1995. "Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 517, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
  11. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2010. "On the investment sensitivity of debt under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 25-27, January.
  12. Robert S. Pindyck & Andres Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 4380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
  14. Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2009. "Why has the investment-cash flow sensitivity declined so sharply? Rising R&D and equity market developments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 971-984, May.
  15. James R. Brown & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 2009. "Financing Innovation and Growth: Cash Flow, External Equity, and the 1990s R&D Boom," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 151-185, 02.
  16. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen & Devereux, Michael & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1992. "Investment and Tobin's Q: Evidence from company panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 233-257.
  17. Guariglia, Alessandra, 1999. "The Effects of Financial Constraints on Inventory Investment: Evidence from a Panel of UK Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 43-62, February.
  18. Tae-Hwy Lee & Faik Koray, 1994. "Uncertainty in Sales and Inventory Behaviour in the U.S. Trade Sectors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 129-42, February.
  19. Alessandra Guariglia & Simona Mateut, 2004. "Credit channel, trade credit channel, and inventory investment: evidence from a panel of UK firms," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  20. Bo, Hong, 2001. "Volatility of sales, expectation errors, and inventory investment: Firm level evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 273-283, August.
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