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Portfolio Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, Crises

  • Merih Uctum

    ()

    (Economics Brooklyn College and the Graduate Center, City University of New York)

  • Remzi Uctum

The goal of the paper is to analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between capital flows and their determinants. We develop a model of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI), and apply it to Turkey using an endogenous break analysis and accounting for country risk. We identify two breakpoints that correspond to two crises dates. Our results show changes in the sign and/or coefficient of a number of determinants in both types of investment and thus suggest that analyses based on the assumption of parameter constancy may lead to misleading results.

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File URL: http://repec.org/sce2005/up.9271.1107108671.pdf
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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 224.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:224
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  1. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
  2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  3. Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "Premature Liberalization, Incomplete Stabilization: The Ozal Decade in Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  5. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2001. "Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth; A Summary of the Recent Literature," IMF Working Papers 01/175, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
  7. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 11901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: a reinterpretation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 45-66, October.
  9. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 2914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis; Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 98/89, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
  12. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  13. Blonigen, Bruce A, 1997. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 447-65, June.
  14. V N Balasubramanyam & V Mahambare, 2003. "Foreign direct investment in India," Working Papers 539987, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  15. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-74, January.
  16. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May.
  17. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & Kristin J. Forbes, 2004. "Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Guncavdi, Oner & Bleaney, Michael & McKay, Andrew, 1998. "Financial liberalisation and private investment: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 443-455.
  19. Asikoglu, Y. & Uctum, M., 1989. "A Critical Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Policy In Turkey," Cahiers de recherche 8919, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  20. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  23. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  24. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1996. "An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Foreign Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 200-207, May.
  25. E. Murat Ucer & C. John McDermott & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate; The Case of Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/1, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  27. Burc Ulengin & Nurhan Yenturk, 2001. "Impacts of capital inflows on aggregate spending categories: the case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1321-1328.
  28. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
  29. Mark Carlson & Leonardo Hernandez, 2002. "Determinants and repercussions of the composition of capital inflows," International Finance Discussion Papers 717, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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