Premature Liberalization, Incomplete Stabilization: the Ozal Decade in Turkey
In late 1979, Turkey stood in the throes of a foreign exchange crisis, with widespread shortages, negative growth, and inflation into triple digits. A decade later, Turkey has a comfortable balance-of-payments situation, and sits atop considerable foreign exchange reserves. The economy has achieved a remarkable transformation from an inward-oriented outlook to an outwardoriented one. Yet, after some success in the early 1980s, inflation remains unconquered and the public sector budget is out of control. This paper provides an interpretation of the Turkish experience in the 1980s. It is argued that foreign capital inflows in the early 1980s cushioned the fiscal squeeze, and allowed a relatively painless reduction in inflation alongside a process of export-oriented growth. In the best of all possible worlds, the outward-oriented reforms would have taken sufficient root by the mid-1980s to allow the public sector to undertake the delayed retrenchment as the inflows came to an end, at no great cost to output. Instead, policy followed a mix of liberalization with patronage politics detrimental to monetary discipline. Financial liberalization reduced demand for base money at the same time that fiscal balances came under increasing strain due to the external transfer. Inflation was rekindled under the dual influence of fiscal deficits and a shrinking base for the inflation tax.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1990|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Michael Bruno, et al, editors. Lessons of Economic Stabilization and Its Aftermath. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1991.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ritu Anand & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988. "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey," NBER Working Papers 2731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Reynoso, 1989.
"Financial Factors in Economic Development,"
NBER Working Papers
2889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Political economy of trade policy," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1457-1494 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.