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Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

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  • Zhai, Fan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Morgan, Peter

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

As an important global and regional economic power, the PRC’s growth slowdown may cause large spillover effects to its neighboring economies. Using a multi-sectoral global computable general equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively investigates the impacts of a growth slowdown in the PRC for emerging Asian economies through trade linkages. The results suggest that a growth slowdown of 1.6 percentage points in the PRC would bring about a growth deceleration of 0.26 percentage points in developing Asia as a whole. However, the impacts vary dramatically by economy within developing Asia, reflecting their difference in economic and trade structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhai, Fan & Morgan, Peter, 2016. "Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 560, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0560
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hyun-Hoon Lee & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2017. "Effects of China's Structural Change on the Exports of East Asian Economies," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(3), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Bekkers, Eddy & Koopman, Robert B. & Rêgo, Carolina Lemos, 2021. "Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    People’s Republic of China; economic slowdown; spillover effects; emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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