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Estimating Dual Deposit Insurance Premium Rates and Forecasting Non-performing Loans: Two New Models

Author

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  • Yoshino, Naoyuki

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Nili, Farhad

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Risky banks that endanger the stability of the financial system should pay higher deposit insurance premiums than healthy banks and other financial institutions that have shown good financial performance. It is necessary, therefore, to have at least a dual fair premium rate system. In this paper, we develop a model for calculating dual fair premium rates. Our definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that could cover the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organization, provides it with sufficient funds to enable it to pay a certain percentage share of deposit amounts to depositors in case of bank default, and provides it with sufficient funds as precautionary reserves. To identify and classify healthier and more stable banks, we use credit rating methods that employ two major dimensional reduction techniques. For forecasting non-performing loans (NPLs), we develop a model that can capture both macro shocks and idiosyncratic shocks to financial institutions in a vector error correction setting. The response of NPLs/loans to macro shocks and idiosyncratic innovations shows that using a model with macro variables only is insufficient, as it is possible that under favorable economic conditions some banks show negative performance or vice versa. Our final results show that stable banks should pay lower deposit insurance premium rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Nili, Farhad, 2015. "Estimating Dual Deposit Insurance Premium Rates and Forecasting Non-performing Loans: Two New Models," ADBI Working Papers 510, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0510
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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    3. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Hometown Investment Trust Funds: An Analysis of Credit Risk," ADBI Working Papers 505, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Bartholdy, Jan & Boyle, Glenn W. & Stover, Roger D., 2003. "Deposit insurance and the risk premium in bank deposit rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 699-717, April.
    5. Acharya, Sankarshan & Dreyfus, Jean-Francois, 1989. " Optimal Bank Reorganization Policies and the Pricing of Federal Deposit Insurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1313-1333, December.
    6. Hwang, Dar-Yeh & Lee, Cheng F. & Liaw, K. Thomas, 1997. "Forecasting bank failures and deposit insurance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-334.
    7. Noriko Inakura & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2010. "Deposit insurance and depositor discipline: direct evidence on bank switching behaviour in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3401-3415.
    8. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    9. Feger, Thuto & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2014. "Tax effort performance in sub-Sahara Africa and the role of colonialism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-174.
    10. Naoyuki Yoshino & Tomohiro Hirano, 2011. "Pro-cyclicality of the Basel Capital Requirement Ratio and Its Impact on Banks-super-∗," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(2), pages 22-36, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Charoensivakorn, Phadet & Niraula, Baburam, 2015. "SME Credit Risk Analysis Using Bank Lending Data: An Analysis of Thai SMEs," ADBI Working Papers 536, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2019. "Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: Evidence from Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 342-356.
    3. Emmanuel O. Eyo & Merrian A. Nwaogu & Michael E. Agenson, 2020. "Agricultural Credit Guarantee in Nigeria and the Uncertainties of the Macroeconomic Environment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 20-29.
    4. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014. "Analytical framework on credit risks for financing small and medium-sized enterprises in Asia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(2), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Zarei , Zhale, 2014. "Assessment and Measurement of Fiscal Condition Index for Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(3), pages 149-175, April.
    6. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Analysis of Credit Ratings for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(2), pages 18-37, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dual deposit insurance premium rates; non-performing loans; idiosyncratic shocks; fair premium rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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