IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed015/798.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dark Corners of the Labor Market

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Sterk

    (University College London)

Abstract

What can happen to unemployment after a severe disruption of the labor market? Standard models predict a reversion to a long-run steady state. By contrast, this paper shows that a large shock may set the economy on a path towards a different steady state with possibly extreme unemployment. This result follows from the empirical behavior of the U.S. job finding rate over the last 25 years. First, I estimate a reduced-form model for the labor market and show that --once allowing for nonlinearities-- it implies a stable steady state around 5 percent unemployment and an unstable one around 10 percent unemployment. Second, I consider an extension of a basic Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) model in which multiple steady states arise due to skill losses upon unemployment, following Pissarides (1992). Based on only observed rates of job loss, this model endogenously explains most of the observed fluctuations in the job finding rate and the unemployment rate, thereby dramatically improving over a basic DMP model with a single steady state.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Sterk, 2015. "The Dark Corners of the Labor Market," 2015 Meeting Papers 798, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:798
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2015/paper_798.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    4. Laureys, Lien, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy in the presence of human capital depreciation during unemployment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58006, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    7. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    8. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1995. "The High Unemployment Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 527-550.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Silva, José Ignacio & Toledo, Manuel, 2009. "Labor Turnover Costs And The Cyclical Behavior Of Vacancies And Unemployment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 76-96, May.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Fiscal increasing returns, hysteresis, real wages and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 543-560, April.
    12. Martin Ellison & Godfrey Keller & Kevin Roberts & Margaret Stevens, 2014. "Unemployment and market size," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 119-148, March.
    13. repec:pri:cepsud:234kaplan is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Julen Esteban-Pretel & Elisa Faraglia, 2010. "Monetary Shocks in a Model with Skill Loss," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1235-1265, October.
    15. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    16. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy Over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Working Papers 11678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed015:798. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.