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Industry Dynamics, Investment and Business Cycles

  • Julieta Caunedo

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

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    This paper investigates how features of the business cycle interact with technological restrictions at the firm level to generate dispersion in marginal products of ex ante identical firms. The model is able to deliver a non-monotonic relationship between dispersion in marginal products, aggregate productivity and the features of the business cycle. When aggregate uncertainty is low and dispersion in marginal products is low, aggregate productivity is high. But when aggregate uncertainty is high, aggregate productivity is low, and the allocation can be consistent with low dispersion in marginal products. These two alternative economies differ in their underlying industry dynamic. Hence, dispersion is an imperfect statistic of aggregate productivity in the model. Allocations are typically non efficient due to imperfect competition and non-convexities in production. I study the properties of the optimal industrial policy. In general, the efficient allocation does not dictate equalization of capital labor ratios across all firms. Allocations are dynamically optimal so there is no room for further reallocation.

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    File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2013/paper_1078.pdf
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    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 1078.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1078
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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    1. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Yoonsoo Lee, 2008. "Entry, Exit, and Plant-level Dynamics over the Business Cycle," 2008 Meeting Papers 454, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Florin Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety and Business Cycles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00680634, HAL.
    3. Marcelo Veracierto, 1997. "Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Matías Busso & Lucía Madrigal & Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2012. "Productivity and Resource Misallocation in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 67198, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Boyan Jovanovic, 1998. "Vintage Capital and Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 497-530, April.
    6. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2003. "Irreversible Investment in Alternative Projects," IDEI Working Papers 193, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jul 2004.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 5474.
    8. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
    9. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2009. "Large Employers Are More Cyclically Sensitive," NBER Working Papers 14740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448, November.
    11. Marcela Eslava & John C. Haltiwanger & Adriana D. Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2009. "Trade Reforms and Market Selection: Evidence from Manufacturing Plants in Colombia," NBER Working Papers 14935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    13. Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1977. "Indivisible commodities and general equilibrium theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 443-456, December.
    14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
    15. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April.
    16. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2005. "Do sunk costs of exporting matter for net export dynamics?," Working Papers 05-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
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