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Asset Prices in a News Driven Real Business Cycle Model

  • Maral Shamloo

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Aytek Malkhozov

    (London School of Economics)

We examine the implications of introducing anticipated productivity shocks for the ability of a real-business-cycle model to explain asset prices. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model in which agents receive news about future productivity shocks. We show that incorporating anticipated shocks, or news, creates a persistent predictable component in consumption growth, often referred to as long-run risk in the finance literature (Bansal and Yaron, 2004). Thus, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences and under plausible parameter calibrations, news shocks help explain key observed asset pricing facts. Furthermore, we show that news shocks improve our prediction for the co-movement of macroeconomic and financial variables, and explain the asset returns' lead over the business cycle. We also model time-varying economic uncertainty (stochastic volatility), and show how under certain conditions this could lead to lower premia in a model where consumption is endogenous. Finally, we discuss how a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with recursive preferences can be solved using perturbation methods, which are more computationally efficient than the usual numerical techniques.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 546.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:546
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, 2007. "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences," Working Papers 07-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
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  9. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
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  11. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  15. Claudio Campanale & Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi, 2007. "Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with ChewÐDekel Preferences," Working Paper Series 07_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  16. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
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  18. Maral Shamloo & Aytek Malkhozov, 2010. "Asset Prices in Affine Real Business Cycle Models," IMF Working Papers 10/249, International Monetary Fund.
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