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Technological Growth and Asset Pricing

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  • Nicolae B. Gârleanu
  • Stavros Panageas
  • Jianfeng Yu

Abstract

In this paper we study the implications of general-purpose technological growth for asset prices. The model features two types of shocks: "small", frequent, and disembodied shocks to productivity and "large" technological innovations, which are embodied into new vintages of the capital stock. While the former affect the economy on impact, the latter affect the economy with lags, since firms need to first adopt the new technologies through investment. The process of adoption leads to cycles in asset valuations and risk premia as firms convert the growth options associated with the new technologies into assets in place. This process can help provide a unified, investment-based view of some well documented phenomena such as the asset-valuation patterns around major technological innovations, the countercyclical behavior of returns, the lead-lag relationship between the stock market and output, and the increasing patterns of consumption-return correlations over longer horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae B. Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas & Jianfeng Yu, 2009. "Technological Growth and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 15340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15340
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalyvitis Sarantis & Panopoulou Ekaterini, 2013. "Estimating C-CAPM and the equity premium over the frequency domain," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 551-571, December.
    2. Eran Hoffmann, 2018. "The Cyclical Composition of Startups," 2018 Meeting Papers 553, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Mariano Max Croce, 2010. "Tax Uncertainty, Leverage and Asset Prices," 2010 Meeting Papers 1084, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Donangelo, Andres & Gourio, François & Kehrig, Matthias & Palacios, Miguel, 2019. "The cross-section of labor leverage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 497-518.
    5. Jianfeng Yu, 2009. "The Long and the Short of Asset Prices: Using Long Run Consumption-Return Correlations to Test Asset Pricing Models," 2009 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Gourio, François, 2011. "Putty-clay technology and stock market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 117-131, March.
    7. Lustig, Hanno & Syverson, Chad & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2011. "Technological change and the growing inequality in managerial compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 601-627, March.
    8. Georg Kaltenbrunner & Lars Lochstoer, 2007. "Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing," 2007 Meeting Papers 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ryo Jinnai, 2015. "Innovation, Product Cycle, and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 484-504, July.
    10. Maral Shamloo & Aytek Malkhozov, 2010. "Asset Prices in a News Driven Real Business Cycle Model," 2010 Meeting Papers 546, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2008. "Investment-Specific Technological Change and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hanno Lustig, "undated". "Exploring the Link between Housing and the Value Premium (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 389, UCLA Department of Economics.
    13. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin, 2011. "Micro Frictions, Asset Pricing and Aggregate," FMG Discussion Papers dp673, Financial Markets Group.
    14. Xiaoji Lin & Jack Favilukis, 2011. "Micro Frictions, Asset Pricing, and Aggregate Implications," 2011 Meeting Papers 466, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Iulian Obreja & Chris Telmer, 2008. "Accounting for Low Frequency Variation in Tobin's q," 2008 Meeting Papers 815, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Seema, 2018. "Technology-investing countries and stock return predictability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 159-179.
    17. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2013. "Winners and Losers: Creative Destruction and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 18671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2011. "The expected real return to equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Hengjie Ai & Mariano Massimiliano Croce & Kai Li, 2013. "Toward a Quantitative General Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Intangible Capital," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 491-530.
    20. Belo, Frederico, 2010. "Production-based measures of risk for asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 146-163, March.
    21. Hengjie Ai & Dana Kiku, 2008. "A Model of Cross-Section of Equity Returns and Firm Dynamics," 2008 Meeting Papers 1030, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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