IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed006/66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment Options and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Boyan Jovanovic

    (Economics New York University)

Abstract

A firm has investment options that it may use up immediately, or store for future use. A patent, e.g., is an option to implement an idea via a product or process innovation. Other investment options are protected by secrecy. An investment option is a profit opportunity that requires an investment to implement. Because investment options are scarce, Tobin’s q is always above unity. When the stock of these options rises, the value of stock market falls, a result that exactly invalidates the use of the stock market as a positive indicator of the stock of intangibles. Finally, the stock market alone ensures that equilibrium is efficient

Suggested Citation

  • Boyan Jovanovic, 2006. "Investment Options and the Business Cycle," 2006 Meeting Papers 66, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2006/paper_66.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Satyajit Chatterjee & Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg, 2012. "Spinoffs And The Market For Ideas," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 53-93, February.
    2. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    3. Joao F. Gomes & Amir Yaron & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Costly External Finance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 767-788, October.
    4. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    5. Jeffrey Campbell, 1998. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April.
    6. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    8. Rasmus Lentz & Dale T. Mortensen, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Growth Through Product Innovation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1317-1373, November.
    9. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2007. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of ( S , s ) Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1165-1188, September.
    10. Carlos J. Serrano, 2010. "The dynamics of the transfer and renewal of patents," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(4), pages 686-708, December.
    11. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-1190, December.
    12. Boyan Jovanovic, 2006. "Asymmetric Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 145-162.
    13. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2000. "Vintage organization capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    14. Darren Filson & April Franco, 2000. "Knowledge diffusion through employee mobility," Staff Report 272, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    16. Rajnish Mehra, 2006. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 12433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rousseau, Peter L., 2005. "General Purpose Technologies," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1181-1224, Elsevier.
    18. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-1085, September.
    19. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    20. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Edward C. Prescott & Rajnish Mehra, 2005. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case Of Homogeneous Households," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 11, pages 357-371, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. ""Tobin's q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 107-154, January.
    23. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    24. Gordon, Robert J, 1969. "$45 Billion of U.S. Private Investment Has Been Mislaid," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 221-238, June.
    25. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
    26. Boyan Jovanovic & Serguey Braguinsky, 2004. "Bidder Discounts and Target Premia in Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 46-56, March.
    27. Yorukoglu, Mehmet, 2000. "Product vs. process innovations and economic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 137-163, June.
    28. Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Jonathan Thong, 2004. "Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 527-540, September.
    29. Robert E. Hall, 2000. "E-Capital: The Link between the Stock Market and the Labor Market in the 1990s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 73-118.
    30. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Rational IPO Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1713-1757, August.
    31. Prescott, Edward C & Boyd, John H, 1987. "Dynamic Coalitions: Engines of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 63-67, May.
    32. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    33. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Douglas Gale, 1996. "Delay and Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(2), pages 169-198.
    35. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    36. Alvarez, Fernando & Stokey, Nancy L., 1998. "Dynamic Programming with Homogeneous Functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 167-189, September.
    37. Stephen Wright, 2004. "Measures Of Stock Market Value And Returns For The U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, 1900–2002," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(4), pages 561-584, December.
    38. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-1165, December.
    39. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2006. "R&D, productivity and market value," IFS Working Papers W06/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    40. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-570, August.
    41. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-754, Sept./Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shouyong Shi & Christine Tewfik, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Investment Delay, and Asset Market Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 155-196, June.
    2. Rousakis, Michael, 2012. "Implementation Cycles : Investment-Specific Technological Change and the Length of Patents," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 983, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Lesley Welman & Sanette LA Ferreira, 2016. "The co-evolution of Saldanha Bay (town and hinterland) and its Port," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 31(1-2), pages 219-233, February.
    4. Rousakis, Michael, 2012. "Implementation Cycles: Investment-Specific Technological Change and the Length of Patents," Economic Research Papers 270656, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. Ohanian, Lee E. & Prescott, Edward C. & Stokey, Nancy L., 2009. "Introduction to dynamic general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2235-2246, November.
    6. Lee, Junghoon, 2016. "The impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty when investment opportunities are endogenous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 105-124.
    7. Levine, Oliver, 2017. "Acquiring growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 300-319.
    8. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    9. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 299-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    11. Nancy L. Stokey, 2013. "Wait-and-See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 19630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jiaxing You & Ling Lin & Juanjuan Huang & Min Xiao, 2020. "When is cash king? International evidence on the value of cash across the business cycle," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1101-1131, April.
    13. Nancy Stokey, 2013. "Uncertainty and Investment Options," 2013 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2014. "Extensive and Intensive Investment over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(4), pages 863-908.
    2. Gunn, Christopher M., 2015. "Animal spirits as an engine of boom-busts and throttle of productivity growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 24-53.
    3. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862, Elsevier.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Michel A. Habib & Ulrich Hege & Pierre Mella-Barral, 2013. "Entrepreneurial Spawning and Firm Characteristics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(12), pages 2790-2804, December.
    6. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2008. "Mergers as Reallocation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 765-776, November.
    7. John Stachurski, 2009. "Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012774, December.
    8. Erzo G.J. Luttmer, 2010. "Models of Growth and Firm Heterogeneity," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 547-576, September.
    9. Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous technological progress and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 411-427.
    10. Cheremukhin, Anton & Tutino, Antonella, 2016. "Information rigidities and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 142-158.
    11. Rui Albuquerue & Neng Wang, 2008. "Agency Conflicts, Investment, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-40, February.
    12. Scanlon, Paul, 2019. "New goods and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 140-157.
    13. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December.
    14. Tom Holden, 2012. "Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1412, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Ferraro, Domenico, 2017. "Volatility and slow technology diffusion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 18-37.
    16. Tian, Can, 2022. "Learning and firm dynamics in a stochastic equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Song, Zhongzhi, 2017. "Capital utilization, market power, and the pricing of investment shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 447-470.
    18. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2013. "Winners and Losers: Creative Destruction and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 18671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Antonova, Anastasiia & Matvieiev, Mykhailo, 2025. "News and firm entry: The role of the waiting option," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    20. Kogan, Leonid, 2001. "An equilibrium model of irreversible investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 201-245, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Tobin's q;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed006:66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.