IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/car/carecp/13-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Animal Spirits as an Engine of Boom-Busts and Throttle of Productivity Growth

Author

Abstract

The news-shock literature interprets empirical news-shock identifications as signals about future productivity. Under this view, changes in productivity cause changes in expectations. I investigate an alternative interpretation whereby changes in expectations cause changes in productivity. I present a model where firms adopt the technology of a deterministic frontier, and where self-fulfilling expectational-shocks unleash a frenzy of adoption through which firms increase productivity. Consistent with the news evidence,stock prices and aggregate activity boom, yet TFP increases with a lag. Simulations using i.i.d. expectational-shocks yield moments consistent with the data, and qualitatively capture both high-frequency boom-busts as well as lower-frequency fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher M. Gunn, 2013. "Animal Spirits as an Engine of Boom-Busts and Throttle of Productivity Growth," Carleton Economic Papers 13-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 10 Apr 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:13-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188915000743
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    3. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2009. "Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations," Harvard Business School Working Papers 09-134, Harvard Business School.
    4. Hulten, Charles R, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change Is Embodied in Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 964-980, September.
    5. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 311-346, Springer.
    6. Cooper, Russell W. & Johri, Alok, 1997. "Dynamic complementarities: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-119, September.
    7. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    8. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-177, February.
    9. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    10. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2009. "Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s (technical appendix)," Staff Report 395, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2008. "Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-1190, December.
    13. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
    14. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    15. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376.
    16. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Charles R. Hulten, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," NBER Working Papers 3971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bennett, Rosalind L. & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2000. "Indeterminacy with Non-separable Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 118-143, July.
    19. Giorgio E. Primiceri & Ernst Schaumburg & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Intertemporal Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 12243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?," NBER Working Papers 17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    23. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The productivity slump
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2014-06-11 18:00:20
    2. Newt troubles
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2017-03-29 17:50:17
    3. Worker ownership: threat or promise?
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2018-09-25 10:15:39

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunn, Christopher M. & Johri, Alok, 2018. "Financial News, Banks, And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 173-198, March.
    2. Christoph Görtz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, 2018. "Taking Stock of TFP News Shocks: The Inventory Comovement Puzzle," Carleton Economic Papers 18-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 14 Jul 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Christoph Gortz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "Learning, Capital Embodied Technology and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(4), pages 708-723, October.
    3. Lester, Robert & Pries, Michael & Sims, Eric, 2014. "Volatility and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 17-36.
    4. Bill Dupor, 2005. "Keynesian Conundrum: Multiplicity and Time Consistent Stabilization," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 154-177, January.
    5. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2009. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 49-60, March.
    6. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    7. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Co-movement," NBER Working Papers 15561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cooper, Russell W. & Johri, Alok, 1997. "Dynamic complementarities: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-119, September.
    9. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2018. "What can we learn about news shocks from the late 1990s and early 2000s boom-bust period?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-105.
    10. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "News shocks and business cycles: bridging the gap from different methodologies," Working Papers 2013_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Burda, Michael C. & Severgnini, Battista, 2014. "Solow residuals without capital stocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 154-171.
    12. Meng, Qinglai & Yip, Chong Kee, 2008. "On indeterminacy in one-sector models of the business cycle with factor-generated externalities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 97-110, March.
    13. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Francis,Neville Ricardo & Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene, 2021. "Technology and Demand Drivers of Productivity Dynamics in Developed and Emerging Market Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9525, The World Bank.
    15. Yan Zhang, 2008. "Does the Utility Function Form Matter for Indeterminacy in a Two Sector Small Open Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 91-101, May.
    16. Ambler, Steve & Guay, Alain & Phaneuf, Louis, 2012. "Endogenous business cycle propagation and the persistence problem: The role of labor-market frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 47-62.
    17. Busato, Francesco & Marchetti, Enrico, 2010. "Endogenous skill cycles," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 175-185, September.
    18. Chen, Kaiji & Wemy, Edouard, 2015. "Investment-specific technological changes: The source of long-run TFP fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 230-252.
    19. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "MEDEA: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 175-243, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations-driven business cycle; sunspot; multiple equilibria; indeterminacy; animal spirits; technology; news shock; intangible capital; embodied; productivity; technological adoption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:car:carecp:13-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabrina Robineau (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.