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Do Stock Market Returns Predict Changes to Output? Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Data Model


  • Ólan T. Henry
  • Nilss Olekalns
  • Jonathan Thong


Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Jonathan Thong, 2003. "Do Stock Market Returns Predict Changes to Output? Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Data Model," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 868, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:868

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jovanovic, Boyan, 2009. "Investment options and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2247-2265, November.
    2. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
    3. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2014. "Impact of uncertainty on high frequency response of the U.S. stock markets to the Fed's policy surprises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 382-392.
    4. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.
    5. Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
    6. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    7. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    8. Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Expected and Unexpected Impulses of Monetary Policy on the Interest Pass-Through Mechanism in Asian Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 95-137, May.
    9. Assefa, Tibebe A. & Mollick, André Varella, 2014. "African stock market returns and liquidity premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 325-342.
    10. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    11. Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2016. "Determinants of asymmetric return comovements of gold and other financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 229-242.
    12. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2015. "Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns," CREATES Research Papers 2015-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2016. "What drives asymmetric dependence structure of asset return comovements?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 312-330.
    15. Radoslaw Kurach, 2011. "Eurozone stock returns co-movement: Some findings for portfolio managers and central bankers," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, April.
    16. repec:kap:ecopln:v:50:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10644-017-9212-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang & T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2008. "A Common-Use Proxy for Economic Performance: Application to Asymmetric Causality between the Stock Returns and Growth," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August.

    More about this item


    Panel data; current depth of recession; stock returns;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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