IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/w201205.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system

Author

Listed:
  • Mário Centeno
  • Álvaro A. Novo

Abstract

Portuguese firms engage in intense reallocation, most employers simultaneously hire and separate from workers, resulting in high excess worker turnover flows. These flows are constrained by the employment protection gap between open-ended and fixed-term contracts. We explore a reform that increased the employment protection of open-ended contracts and generated a quasi-experiment. The causal evidence points to an increase in the share and in the excess turnover of fixed-term contracts in treated rms. The excess turnover of open-ended contracts remained unchanged. This result is consistent with a high degree of substitution between open-ended and fixed-term contracts. At the firm level, we also show that excess turnover is quite heterogeneous and quantify its association with firm, match, and worker characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mário Centeno & Álvaro A. Novo, 2012. "Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system," Working Papers w201205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201205.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lalive, Rafael, 2008. "How do extended benefits affect unemployment duration A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 785-806, February.
    2. Gibbons, Robert & Katz, Lawrence F, 1991. "Layoffs and Lemons," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 351-380, October.
    3. Burgess, Simon & Lane, Julia & Stevens, David, 2000. "Job Flows, Worker Flows, and Churning," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 473-502, July.
    4. Samuel Bentolila & Juan J. Dolado & Pierre Cahuc & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2010. "Two-Tier Labor Markets in the Great Recession: France Vs. Spain," Working Papers wp2010_1009, CEMFI.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean Tirole, 2008. "The Joint Design of Unemployment Insurance and Employment Protection: A First Pass," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 45-77, March.
    6. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    7. Lorenzo Cappellari & Carlo Dell’Aringa & Marco Leonardi, 2012. "Temporary Employment, Job Flows and Productivity: A Tale of Two Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(562), pages 188-215, August.
    8. Honore, Bo E., 1993. "Orthogonality conditions for Tobit models with fixed effects and lagged dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 35-61, September.
    9. Kugler, Adriana & Pica, Giovanni, 2008. "Effects of employment protection on worker and job flows: Evidence from the 1990 Italian reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 78-95, February.
    10. Albaek, Karsten & Sorensen, Bent E, 1998. "Worker Flows and Job Flows in Danish Manufacturing, 1980-91," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1750-1771, November.
    11. Pierre Cahuc & Olivier Charlot & Franck Malherbet, 2016. "Explaining The Spread Of Temporary Jobs And Its Impact On Labor Turnover," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 533-572, May.
    12. John M. Abowd & Patrick Corbel & Francis Kramarz, 1999. "The Entry And Exit Of Workers And The Growth Of Employment: An Analysis Of French Establishments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 170-187, May.
    13. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Luís M B Cabral & José Mata, 2003. "On the Evolution of the Firm Size Distribution: Facts and Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1075-1090, September.
    15. Hall, Robert E, 1982. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 716-724, September.
    16. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    17. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger & Ian Rucker, 2010. "Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS," NBER Chapters,in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 187-216 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. John C. Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," NBER Working Papers 16300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ureta, Manuelita, 1992. "The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 322-335, March.
    20. Pedro S. Martins, 2009. "Dismissals for Cause: The Difference That Just Eight Paragraphs Can Make," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 257-279, April.
    21. António Rua & Artur Silva Lopes, 2015. "Cohesion within the euro area and the US: A wavelet-based view," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, pages 63-76.
    22. Andrea Bassanini, 2010. "Inside the perpetual-motion machine: cross-country comparable evidence on job and worker flows at the industry and firm level -super-†," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 2097-2134, December.
    23. Christian Dustmann & Johannes Ludsteck & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Revisiting the German Wage Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(2), pages 843-881.
    24. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    25. Burgess, Simon & Lane, Julia & Stevens, David, 2001. "Churning dynamics: an analysis of hires and separations at the employer level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    26. Centeno, Mário & Novo, Álvaro A., 2012. "Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 320-328.
    27. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    28. Mário Centeno & Álvaro A. Novo & Carla Machado, 2008. "The Anatomy of Employment Growth in Portuguese Firms," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    29. Katharine G. Abraham & James R. Spletzer & Michael Harper, 2010. "Labor in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra08-1, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Damas de Matos, Ana & Parent, Daniel, 2016. "Which firms create fixed-term employment? Evidence from Portugal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 348-362.
    2. Mário Centeno & Álvaro A. Novo, 2012. "Segmentation," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Pierre Cahuc & Olivier Charlot & Franck Malherbet, 2016. "Explaining The Spread Of Temporary Jobs And Its Impact On Labor Turnover," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 533-572, May.
    4. repec:hrs:journl:v:ix:y:2017:i:2:p:159-175 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:labeco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:64-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Centeno, Mario & Duarte, Claudia & Novo, Alvaro A., 2014. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Match Stability," IZA Discussion Papers 8703, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Sachs Andreas & Smolny Werner, 2015. "Youth Unemployment in the OECD: The Role of Institutions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(4-5), pages 403-417, August.
    8. repec:ilo:ilowps:481497 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo & Martins, Fernando, 2013. "Wage rigidity and employment adjustment at the firm level: Evidence from survey data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 40-49.
    10. Lutz Bellmann & Hans-Dieter Gerner & Christian Hohendanner, 2014. "Fixed-term contracts and dismissal protection. Evidence from a policy reform in Germany," Working Paper Series in Economics 320, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    11. Martins, Pedro S., 2016. "Should the Maximum Duration of Fixed-Term Contracts Increase in Recessions? Evidence from a Law Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 10206, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. d'Agostino, Giorgio & Pieroni, Luca & Scarlato, Margherita, 2015. "Revisiting the Effects of Enhanced Flexibility on the Italian Labour Market," MPRA Paper 63239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    15. Centeno, Mario & Novo, Alvaro A., 2014. "Paying for Others' Protection: Causal Evidence on Wages in a Two-Tier System," IZA Discussion Papers 8702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    16. Álvaro A. Novo, 2015. "The Portuguese labor market legislation: a technological shock," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Centeno, Mário & Novo, Álvaro A., 2012. "Excess worker turnover and fixed-term contracts: Causal evidence in a two-tier system," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 320-328.
    18. Kai Priesack, 2015. "Employment consequences of changes in dismissal protection: Evidence from a 2004 German reform," Working Papers 2015012, Berlin Doctoral Program in Economics and Management Science (BDPEMS).
    19. Charlot, Olivier & Malherbet, Franck, 2013. "Education and employment protection," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 3-23.
    20. Sara Serra, 2015. "Temporary contracts’ transitions: the role of training and institutions," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Le Barbanchon, Thomas. & Malherbet, Franck., 2013. "An anatomy of the French labour market : country case studies on labour market segmentation," ILO Working Papers 994814973402676, International Labour Organization.
    22. Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques & Fernando Martins, 2012. "Labour cost-cutting strategies microeconomic evidence from survey data," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (DEE-NTDD). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.