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Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS

  • Steven J. Davis
  • R. Jason Faberman
  • John C. Haltiwanger
  • Ian Rucker

We develop and implement a method to improve estimates of worker flows and job openings based on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Our method involves reweighting the cross-sectional density of employment growth rates in JOLTS to match the corresponding density in the comprehensive Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data. To motivate our work, we compare JOLTS to other data sources and document large discrepancies with respect to aggregate employment growth, the magnitude of worker flows, and the cross-sectional density of establishment growth rates. We also discuss issues related to JOLTS sample design and nonresponse corrections. Our adjusted statistics for hires and separations exceed the published statistics by about one-third. The adjusted layoff rate is more than 60 percent greater than the published layoff rate. Time-series properties are also affected. For example, hires exhibit more volatility than separations in the published statistics, but the reverse holds in the adjusted statistics. The impact of our adjustment methodology on estimated job openings is more modest, raising the vacancy rate by about 8 percent.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14137.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14137.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Publication status: published as Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS , Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman, John C. Haltiwanger, Ian Rucker. in Labor in the New Economy , Abraham, Spletzer, and Harper. 2010
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14137
Note: EFG LS
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  1. Gertler, Mark & Trigari, Antonella, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuation with staggered Nash wage bargaining," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & C. J. Krizan & Javier Miranda & Alfred Nucci & Kristin Sandusky, 2007. "Measuring the Dynamics of Young and Small Businesses: Integrating the Employer and Nonemployer Universes," NBER Working Papers 13226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
  4. Shigeru Fugita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "Job matching and propagation," Working Papers 06-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. R. Jason Faberman, 2006. "Job Flows and the Recent Business Cycle: Not All "Recoveries" Are Created Equal," Working Papers 391, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  6. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2010. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," NBER Working Papers 16265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  8. R. Jason Faberman, 2005. "Studying the Labor Market with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey," Working Papers 388, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  9. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, June.
  10. Jacob Mincer & Boyan Jovanovic, 1979. "Labor Mobility and Wages," NBER Working Papers 0357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier.
  13. Eva Nagypal & R. Jason Faberman, 2007. "The Effect of Quits on Worker Recruitment: Theory and Evidence," 2007 Meeting Papers 780, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
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