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Monetary Policy Response to Capital Inflows in Form of Foreign Aid in Malawi

  • Chance Mwabutwa

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Nicola Viegi

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Manoel Bittencourt

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

This paper estimates the Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and uses the model to account for the short-run monetary policy response to increased aid inflows in Malawi. The estimates reveal that the monetary authorities reacted to increased foreign aid inflows the same way as was experienced in other African countries. The model also suggests that there was non-existence of the threats of the ‘Dutch Disease’ in contrast to what was found in Mozambique. The country can continue to receive aid by targeting the supply side of the economy with an aim of improving the competiveness of the export sector. Evidently, the conduct of monetary policy performs better under the assumption of full accessibility of financial assets. In addition, the impact of aid inflows on depreciation and inflation are much smaller when monetary authorities indulge in money targeting other than following the Taylor rule and incomplete sterilisation. On the small note, the study suggests that actual spending of aid should be aligned with the actual absorption of increased aid. Nevertheless, the outcome of the aid effects has been clouded out by the limitation of the exchange rate management in Malawi.

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Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201232.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201232
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  1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  2. Manoel Bittencourt & Chance Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi, 2012. "Financial Reforms and Consumption Behaviour in Malawi," Working Papers 201210, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2013. "Interaction of Formal and Informal Financial Markets in Quasi-Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201306, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Mumtaz Hussain & Andrew Berg & Shekhar Aiyar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 491-509, 08.
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  8. Galí, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2004. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Adam, Christopher S. & Buffie, Edward & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  10. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A, 1999. "External Aid: Help or Hindrance to Export Orientation in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(4), pages 578-616, December.
  11. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Andrew Berg & Tokhir Mirzoev & Rafael Portillo, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows; Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy," IMF Working Papers 10/65, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Edward Buffie & Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Catherine Pattillo, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 126-160, June.
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  14. David Fielding & Fred Gibson, 2013. "Aid and Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, January.
  15. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. B Ouattara & E Strobl, 2003. "Do Aid Inflows Cause Dutch Disease? A Case Study of the CFA Franc Countries," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0330, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  18. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
  19. Shanaka J. Peiris & Magnus Saxegaard, 2007. "An Estimated Dsge Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/282, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Isabell Adenauer & Laurence Vagassky, 1998. "Aid and the real exchange rate: Dutch disease effects in African countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 177-185, July.
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