Sovereign bond ratings and market spreads. a dynamic panel analysis
Abstract This paper applies a measure of country risk to determine the evolution of credit spreads on secondary market sovereign bonds issued by emerging countries. After the Mexican financial crisis in 1995, this market has been characterised by a sharp decline of spreads which, by mid-1997, brought them to a level which was thought not to adequately cover risk. The episode has been followed in successive years by a new increase of spreads, accompanied by high volatility in concomitance with the Asian and Russian crises. In order to tackle the issue of how preads are determined, we concentrate on sovereign risk as measured by spreads on Brady bonds and specify a dynamic panel model including seven countries that are large issuers of these instruments. The analysis reveals a significant effect for economic fundamentals, but we also found that spreads are significantly affected by shock factors: besides general financial crises, we isolated a role for commodity prices. We found an asymmetric effect for core countries interest rates, which signals the limited role for core rates in affecting the decline in spreads, that we instead attribute, besides a bettering of fundamentals, to a spreading of lobalisation. In the post ‘97 period we found spreads grossly in line with fundamentals but we have no specific explanation to offer for the occurrence of repeated financial crises save that a general recourse to the argument of nterdependence. We think that the analysis of contagion or interdependence problems that has recently attracted much attention obviously deserves further work and possibly a different econometric technique using data at a higher frequency than the monthly data employed in this study.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises; Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 98/91, .
- Erik Durbin & David Tat-Chee Ng, 1999. "Uncovering country risk in emerging market bond prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 639, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000.
"Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-362, January.
- Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 1998. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: the Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," CEPR Discussion Papers 1820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 1999. "Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," CSGR Working papers series 35/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
- Marcus H. Miller & Lei Zhang, 1999. "Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case for A Payments Standstill," Working Paper Series WP99-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
- Reisen, Helmut & Von Maltzan, Julia & Larraín, Guillermo, 1998. "Emerging market risk and sovereign credit ratings," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34380, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
- Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
- Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 148, OECD Publishing.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.