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Analysis of the “Dutch Disease” effect and public financial management: the case of Mongolia


  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki


This paper aims to diagnose Mongolian economy on whether the economy has suffered from the Dutch Disease by applying a vector auto-regression model for the period from 1993 to 2016 under the current market-based regime including resource-booming times. From the outcomes of a VAR model estimation, it was found that there is a great possibility that Mongolian economy has been suffering from the Dutch Disease through the resource movement effect and the spending effect such that the boom in the mining sector has crowded out manufacturing activities; and that the boom in the mining sector has not contributed to, or even deteriorated the capital accumulation effect that alleviates the Dutch Disease. The strategic policy implications for the current Mongolian public financial management are that the part of the existing resource fund should be used for public investment to facilitate capital accumulation, specifically, for the projects on education, health and economic infrastructure to promote industrial diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2018. "Analysis of the “Dutch Disease” effect and public financial management: the case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 86561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86561

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Senesouphap, Chanthachonh & Yawdhacksa, Somnack, 2012. "Resource Boom, Growth and Poverty in Laos: what can we learn from other countries and policy simulations?," PEP Policy Briefs 161661, Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    3. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    4. Auty, Richard M., 2007. "Natural resources, capital accumulation and the resource curse," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 627-634, March.
    5. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ni Lar, 2016. "The Resource Curse Hypothesis Revisited: Evidence from Asian Economies," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 31-42.
    6. Usui, Norio, 1996. "Policy adjustments to the oil boom and their evaluation: The Dutch disease in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 887-900, May.
    7. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Leonor Coutinho, 2011. "The Resource Curse and Fiscal Policy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 5(1), pages 43-70, June.
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    More about this item


    Dutch Disease; Public Financial Management; Mongolian economy; Vector auto-regression; Public investment;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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