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Analysis of the “Dutch Disease” effect: The case of resource-rich ASEAN economies

Listed author(s):
  • Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  • Soukvisan, Khinsamone

This paper examines the applicability of the Dutch Disease hypothesis by using a vector auto-regression model, focusing on the five resource-rich and middle-income economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): Malaysia and Indonesia as the forerunners, and Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam as the latecomers at their development processes. The empirical study found that the latecomers of Lao PDR and Myanmar seemed to suffer from the Dutch Disease over the sample period; and the forerunners of Indonesia and Malaysia, on the other hand, appeared to have no Dutch Disease effect at least in the current period of 1995-2015, although Indonesia had experienced the Dutch Disease in the previous period of 1970-1995. The lessons from the forerunners’ experiences in order for the latecomers to escape from the Ditch Disease are to establish some funding system of allocating resource revenues for investment projects; to diversify domestic industries through improving business environments; and to improve institutional quality to reinforce resource governance.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81010/1/MPRA_paper_81010.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 81010.

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Date of creation: Aug 2017
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81010
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  1. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  5. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
  6. Usui, Norio, 1997. "Dutch disease and policy adjustments to the oil boom: a comparative study of Indonesia and Mexico," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 151-162, December.
  7. Usui, Norio, 1996. "Policy adjustments to the oil boom and their evaluation: The Dutch disease in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 887-900, May.
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