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Foreign direct investment and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

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  • Sunde, Tafirenyika

Abstract

The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government should stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunde, Tafirenyika, 2016. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa," MPRA Paper 72382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Diana Nabila Chau Abdullah & Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Nor Ermawati Hussain, 2017. "Investigating the Causal Relationship between Export and Economic Growth: A Malaysian Perspective," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(7), pages 581-591, July.
    2. Daniel Francois Meyer & Lerato Mothibi, 2021. "The Effect of Risk Rating Agencies Decisions on Economic Growth and Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Khobai Hlalefang & Hamman Nicolene & Mkhombo Thando & Mhaka Simba & Mavikela Nomahlubi & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Quantile Regression Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 33-55, December.
    4. Mohsen Mehrara & Samaneh Seijani & Abbas Rezazadeh Karsalari, 2017. "Determinants of high-tech export in developing countries based on Bayesian model averaging," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 199-215.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; foreign direct investment; ARDL; stationarity; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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