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Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach


  • Deluna, Roperto Jr
  • Jeon, Narae


This study was conducted to investigate the determinants of international tourism demand for the Philippines.This study employed a double-log augmented form of gravity model estimated using the robust random effects model.Results revealed that tourist arrival in the Philippines are generally increasing from 2001 to 2012. Empirical estimation was conducted to determine factors affecting Philippine tourism demand. These factors include income, market size, and distance. Relative prices was also identified which includes cost of living and price of goods and services in the Philippines and other related tourism destination like Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Supporting variables like direct flights, conflict, commonality in language and common colonizer between the Philippines and source of origin of the tourist was also examined. Furthermore, it also includes impact of calamity in the tourist home country and common membership to ASEAN. Empirical results show that tourist inflow is positively and significantly affected by income of the origin country and is reduced by population and distance. Relative low prices of tourism in term of cost of living and prices of goods and services in the Philippines have no effect in attracting inbound tourist. Furthermore, international demand for Philippine tourism is not affected by relative prices of tourism in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand as the competing tourist destinations. Conflict and common colonizer between Philippines and country of origin are not significant determinants of international tourism demand. Among the variables, direct flights turned out to be the most significant factor that can contribute to the increase in tourism demand of the Philippines.

Suggested Citation

  • Deluna, Roperto Jr & Jeon, Narae, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55294

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aslan, Alper & Kaplan, Muhittin & Kula, Ferit, 2008. "International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 10601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Christoph Vietze, 2008. "Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach," Jena Economic Research Papers 2008-037, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Peter Egger, 2005. "Alternative Techniques for Estimation of Cross-Section Gravity Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 881-891, November.
    4. Jie Zhang & Camilla Jensen, 2005. "Comparative Advantage in Tourism - A Supply-Side Analysis of Tourism Flows," ERSA conference papers ersa05p183, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Edwin Muchapondwa & Obert Pimhidzai, 2008. "Modelling International Tourism Demand for Zimbabwe," Working Papers 107, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    6. Yair Eilat & Liran Einav, 2004. "Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1315-1327.
    7. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferika Pujiharini & Masaru Ichihashi, 2016. "The Impact of Visa-Free Entry on the Determinants of Inbound Tourism Demand in Indonesia," IDEC DP2 Series 6-5, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    2. Manuela, Wilfred S. & de Vera, Manuel J., 2015. "The impact of government failure on tourism in the Philippines," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-22.
    3. Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).

    More about this item


    Philippine Tourism; augmented gravity; tourism demand;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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