IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v16y2016i1_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad ALAWIN
  • Ziad ABU-LILA

Abstract

This study identifies the determinants of international tourism in Jordan, and studying the uncertainty as one of these determinants. To do this, the study employed two approaches; Gravity model to identify the determinants of international tourism, and Panel-GARCH model to investigate the effect of uncertainty on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. In order to accomplish these objectives, annual time series from 2000-2014 for 22 countries were carried out. The empirical results indicate that the level of Jordanian development, infrastructure, language and familiarity with location have a positive impact on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. On contrast of that, cost of living, exchange rate, distance and uncertainty have negative impacts. Finally, income of importing countries and hotel capacity were found statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:16:y:2016:i:1_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/~economet/journals1/aeid/aeid16111.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access restricted to subscribers. Free on line subscription for universities from low income countries. More information at http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Culiuc, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism," IMF Working Papers 14/82, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 291-316, November.
    3. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
    5. Simwaka, Kisu, 2006. "Dynamics of Malawi’s trade flows: a gravity model approach," MPRA Paper 1122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Deluna, Roperto Jr & Jeon, Narae, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fateh Habibi & Hossein Abbasinejad, 2011. "Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 16(2), pages 27-41, spring.
    8. repec:ags:jaecon:43996 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    10. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    11. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Walter Isard & Merton J. Peck, 1954. "Location Theory and International and Interregional Trade Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 97-114.
    13. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    14. Walter Isard, 1954. "Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 305-320.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Panel-GARCH model; Jordan; Tourism.;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:16:y:2016:i:1_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.