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Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad ALAWIN
  • Ziad ABU-LILA

Abstract

This study identifies the determinants of international tourism in Jordan, and studying the uncertainty as one of these determinants. To do this, the study employed two approaches; Gravity model to identify the determinants of international tourism, and Panel-GARCH model to investigate the effect of uncertainty on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. In order to accomplish these objectives, annual time series from 2000-2014 for 22 countries were carried out. The empirical results indicate that the level of Jordanian development, infrastructure, language and familiarity with location have a positive impact on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. On contrast of that, cost of living, exchange rate, distance and uncertainty have negative impacts. Finally, income of importing countries and hotel capacity were found statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:16:y:2016:i:1_11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Culiuc, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism," IMF Working Papers 14/82, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 291-316, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Panel-GARCH model; Jordan; Tourism.;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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