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Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model

Listed author(s):
  • Mohammad ALAWIN
  • Ziad ABU-LILA
Registered author(s):

    This study identifies the determinants of international tourism in Jordan, and studying the uncertainty as one of these determinants. To do this, the study employed two approaches; Gravity model to identify the determinants of international tourism, and Panel-GARCH model to investigate the effect of uncertainty on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. In order to accomplish these objectives, annual time series from 2000-2014 for 22 countries were carried out. The empirical results indicate that the level of Jordanian development, infrastructure, language and familiarity with location have a positive impact on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. On contrast of that, cost of living, exchange rate, distance and uncertainty have negative impacts. Finally, income of importing countries and hotel capacity were found statistically significant.

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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/~economet/journals1/aeid/aeid16111.pdf
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    Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2016)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:16:y:2016:i:1_11
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    1. Alexander Culiuc, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism," IMF Working Papers 14/82, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Simwaka, Kisu, 2006. "Dynamics of Malawi’s trade flows: a gravity model approach," MPRA Paper 1122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
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    6. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 291-316, November.
    7. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
    8. Deluna, Roperto Jr & Jeon, Narae, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Fateh Habibi & Hossein Abbasinejad, 2011. "Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 16(2), pages 27-41, spring.
    10. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    11. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    13. Walter Isard, 1954. "Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 305-320.
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