IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v12y2024i7p176-d1431001.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Albania’s Trade Direction: Is the Open Balkan a New Center of Gravity?

Author

Listed:
  • Glediana Zeneli (Foto)

    (Department of Statistics & Applied Informatics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tirana, 1001 Tirana, Albania)

  • Arsen Benga

    (Math and Science Unit, Department of Engineering and Technology, American College of the Middle East, Kuwait City 15453, Kuwait)

  • Altin Hoti

    (College of Engineering and Technology, American University of the Middle East, Kuwait)

Abstract

Trade is considered one of the main drivers of a country’s economic growth and development. Therefore, a successful analysis that identifies the bilateral trade flows, their determinants, and the regional integration costs and benefits opens new horizons for international trade perspectives. This study examines the effects of new and existing regional agreements on the international trade patterns of Western Balkan countries based on the Albanian case. In this regard, an extended trade gravity model is applied with a panel data set of trade flows between Albania and 43 of its regional strategic partners during the period of 2008 to 2022. This work considers two different similarity indexes to explain the effect of the economic structures of partner countries on their trade volumes: the relative factor endowment and the absolute factor endowment. The first is used to test the Linder Hypothesis, and the latter is used to test the effect of similarity in economic size between trading partners. Empirical results indicate that the effect of the selected explanatory variables, such as transportation costs, economic size, economic strength, exchange rate, and their relative as well as absolute endowment, is within expectations. Unexpectedly, the domestic economic size and strength are found to be insignificant in explaining the import flows and inversely proportional to the exports of Albania. Finally, it is indicated that trade flows are clearly dependent on traditional ties rather than on new incentives like the Open Balkan, which cannot offer a new regional center of gravity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the gravity of the Open Balkan initiative has been tested for one of the participating countries. The study concludes that while the Open Balkan initiative shows potential, the Berlin Process remains a more reliable path toward EU integration for Albania.

Suggested Citation

  • Glediana Zeneli (Foto) & Arsen Benga & Altin Hoti, 2024. "Analysis of Albania’s Trade Direction: Is the Open Balkan a New Center of Gravity?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:7:p:176-:d:1431001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/7/176/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/7/176/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luigi Capoani, 2023. "Review of the gravity model: origins and critical analysis of its theoretical development," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(5), pages 1-43, May.
    2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    3. Luca De Benedictis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2005. "Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate," Economics Working Papers 037, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    4. Jože P. Damijan & Igor Masten, 2002. "Time Dependent Efficiency of Free Trade Agreements - The Case of Slovenia and the CEFTA Agreement," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 147-160.
    5. Tetiana Melnyk & Nataliya Kalyuzhna & Kateryna Pugachevska, 2018. "A Gravity Model Of Trade Turnover Between Ukraine And The Eu," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 4(4).
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, April.
    7. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    8. Marie Stack & Eric Pentecost, 2011. "Regional integration and trade: A panel cointegration approach to estimating the gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 53-65.
    9. Christophe Bell'ego & David Benatia & Louis Pape, 2022. "Dealing with Logs and Zeros in Regression Models," Papers 2203.11820, arXiv.org.
    10. Georgios E. Chortareas & Theodore Pelagidis, 2004. "Trade flows: a facet of regionalism or globalisation?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 28(2), pages 253-271, March.
    11. Assist. Prof. Dr. Eglantina Hysa & Oltiana Nikolli, M.A., 2014. "Trade Effect On Economic Growth Of Balkan Countries," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(23), pages 109-120, November.
    12. Plamen Kaloyanchev & Ivan Kusen & Alexandros Mouzakitis, 2018. "Untapped Potential: Intra-Regional Trade in the Western Balkans," European Economy - Discussion Papers 080, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Mogilat, A. & Salnikov, V., 2015. "Trade Effects Estimation for the Case of Eurasian Economic Space Countries: Application of Regional Gravity Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 80-108.
    14. Massimiliano Porto, 2020. "The Gravity Model of Trade," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Using R for Trade Policy Analysis, chapter 0, pages 65-81, Springer.
    15. Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici (ed.), 2011. "The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-16564-1, February.
    16. Darren Byers & Talan Işcan & Barry Lesser, 2000. "New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 73-91, January.
    17. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    18. Debaere, Peter, 2005. "Monopolistic competition and trade, revisited: testing the model without testing for gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 249-266, May.
    19. Paas, Tiiu, 2003. "Regional Integration and International Trade in the Context of EU Eastward Enlargement," Discussion Paper Series 26223, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    20. Filippini, Carlo & Molini, Vasco, 2003. "The determinants of East Asian trade flows: a gravity equation approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 695-711, October.
    21. repec:lic:licosd:11702 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland, 2018. "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model," ifo Working Paper Series 250, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    23. Paas, Tiiu, 2003. "Regional Integration and International Trade in the Context of EU Eastward Enlargement," HWWA Discussion Papers 218, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    24. Dean A. DeRosa & John P. Gilbert, 2005. "Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements," Working Paper Series WP05-13, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    25. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, August.
    26. Antonis Adam & Mr. James McHugh & Mr. Theodora Kosma, 2003. "Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From Cefta and Bfta?," IMF Working Papers 2003/239, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Braha, K. & Qineti, A. & Cupák, A. & Lazorčáková, E., 2017. "Determinants of Albanian Agricultural Export: The Gravity Model Approach," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(2), June.
    28. William H. Gruber & Raymond Vernon, 1970. "The Technology Factor in a World Trade Matrix," NBER Chapters, in: The Technology Factor in International Trade, pages 233-301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    2. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Salahuddin & Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen, 2020. "Economic & Cultural Distance & Regional Integration: Evidence from Gravity Model Using Disaggregated Data for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 243-274.
    5. B. Michael Gilroy & Elmar Lukas & Christian Heimann, 2010. "Welchen Einfluss hat die Anwesenheit von ausländischen und multinationalen Unternehmungen auf die deutschen Exporte?," Working Papers CIE 31, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    6. Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The “deeper” and the “wider” EU strategies of trade integration.An empirical evaluation of EU Common Commercial Policy effects," ISAE Working Papers 79, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    7. Gilroy B. Michael & Lukas Elmar & Heimann Christian, 2013. "Technologiestandort Deutschland und internationale Wissensspillover / Technology Site Germany and International Knowledge Spillovers: Welchen Einfluss nehmen ausländische MNU auf deutsche Exporte? / W," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 575-599, October.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
    10. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2015. "European enlargement policy, technological capabilities and sectoral export dynamics," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 25-69, February.
    11. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Farha Fatema & Mohammad Monirul Islam, 2020. "Driving Forces of Marine Fisheries and Seafood Export of Bangladesh: Augmented Gravity Model Approach," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 106-122, June.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Anna Golovko & Hasan Sahin, 2021. "Analysis of international trade integration of Eurasian countries: gravity model approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 519-548, September.
    16. Julia Spies & Helena Marques, 2006. "Trade Effects of the Europe Agreements," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 274/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    17. Lucie COUFALOVA, 2018. "Scottish Independence: How Would It Affect The Country'S Foreign Trade?," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 111-120, July.
    18. Jugurnath, Bhavish & Stewart, Mark & Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 974-987, December.
    19. Nilanjan Banik & John Gilbert, 2010. "Regional Integration and Trade Costs in South Asia," Chapters, in: Douglas H. Brooks & Susan F. Stone (ed.), Trade Facilitation and Regional Cooperation in Asia, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 573-573, October.
    21. James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, August.
    23. Felix Groba, 2014. "Determinants of trade with solar energy technology components: evidence on the porter hypothesis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 503-526, February.
    24. Robert J. R. Elliott & Kengo Ikemoto, 2004. "AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra‐Regional Trade?," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:7:p:176-:d:1431001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.