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Regional integration and trade: A panel cointegration approach to estimating the gravity model

Author

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  • Marie Stack
  • Eric Pentecost

Abstract

Using a panel data set of bilateral export flows from 12 European Union (EU) countries to 20 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trading partners over the period 1992-2003, a panel cointegration approach to estimating the gravity model is adopted to test for the significance of European regional integration. A comparison of the results indicates that a positive and significant coefficient estimate of the EU dummy variable is found for both the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) estimator and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator. The results, however, diverge once fixed effects are admitted into the model. The least squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator suggests a small positive effect of EU integration on trade. In contrast, the dynamic LSDV estimator indicates that regional integration has a larger beneficial effect on trade. The results highlight the fundamental importance of properly accounting for endogeneity when evaluating trade policy effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Stack & Eric Pentecost, 2011. "Regional integration and trade: A panel cointegration approach to estimating the gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 53-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:53-65
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2011.538184
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Dai & Songtao Wu & Ling Liang & Zifu Qin, 2016. "Bilateral Trade under Environmental Pressure: Balanced Growth," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 209-231, June.
    2. Suresh K G & Neeraj Aswal, 2014. "Determinants of India's Manufactured Exports to South and North: A Gravity Model Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 144-151.
    3. Petra Bubáková, 2013. "Gravity Model of International Trade, Its Variables, Assumptions, Problems and Applications [Gravitační model mezinárodní směny, jeho proměnné, předpoklady, problémy a aplikace]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 3-24.
    4. Arman Mazhikeyev & T. Huw Edwards, 2021. "Post-colonial trade between Russia and former Soviet republics: back to big brother?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 877-918, August.
    5. Mahdi Ghodsi, 2015. "The Role of Specific Trade Concerns Raised on TBTs in the Import of Products to the EU, USA and China," wiiw Working Papers 116, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Kis, Katalin, 2017. "A Kelet-afrikai Közösség belső kereskedelmére ható tényezők [Factors determining the intra-regional trade of the East African Community]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 943-969.
    7. Barnes, Ryan & Bosworth, Ryan, 2015. "LNG is linking regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the gravity model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-17.

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