IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/ijebaa/vviiy2019i4p102-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gravity Approach for Determinants of Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Degirmenci N.
  • Yakıcı Ayan T.

Abstract

Purpose: The present study proposes the fuzzy gravity model approach to examine the main factors that affect the export volume of Turkey and whether the European Union Customs Union (EUCU) membership affected the export of it. Design/Methodology/Approach: A fuzzy approach was developed for the gravity model by using these variables. The dependent variable was the export volume of Turkey to 204 countries throughout the whole world, and the explanatory variables were the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries that are subject to export and their distances to Turkey (dij), populations, whether the seaway transport was possible, and the membership to the EUCU. The last two items were added as dummy variables in the model. Findings: The results showed that gross domestic product (GDP) of the country which Turkey exports to, its being a member of the EUCU, and its population affected the export volume of Turkey positively. However, the distance of the target country to Turkey had a negative effect. The coefficient of distance variable was found to be negative fuzzy and ones of the seaway was fully fuzzy. However, when seaway variable was taken together with distance, it was positive fuzzy, which showed the positive effect of the opportunity of transportation by sea in long distances on export volume. Practical Implications: It is thought that the policies to be established based on these findings will be beneficial in improving the country's exports. Other available fuzzy regression approaches may be tried in future studies to obtain a fuzzy model. In addition, the import or foreign trade structure of Turkey may be dealt with the same approach. Originality/Value: In this study the fuzzy gravity model approach was used as a novelty, which was different from the methods in the literature, because the gravity model is criticized sometimes that its theoretical basis is weak and the relations between dependent variables and explanatory variables are not adequately clear.

Suggested Citation

  • Degirmenci N. & Yakıcı Ayan T., 2019. "Gravity Approach for Determinants of Exports," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 102-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:ijebaa:v:vii:y:2019:i:4:p:102-111
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ijeba.com/journal/334/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xu Wang & Ryan P. Badman, 2016. "A Multifaceted Panel Data Gravity Model Analysis of Peru's Foreign Trade," Papers 1612.01155, arXiv.org.
    2. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
    3. Laxmi Prasad Prasai, 2014. "Foreign Trade Pattern of Nepal: Gravity Model Approach," NRB Working Paper 21/2014, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    4. Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2005. "A Gravity Model for Exports from Iceland," CAM Working Papers 2005-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    5. Suresh K G & Neeraj Aswal, 2014. "Determinants of India's Manufactured Exports to South and North: A Gravity Model Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 144-151.
    6. Xu WANG & Ryan P. BADMAN, 2016. "A Multifaceted Panel Data Gravity Model Analysis of Peru’s Foreign Trade," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 562-577, December.
    7. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Laxmi Prasad Prasai, 2014. "Foreign Trade Pattern of Nepal: Gravity Model Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 26(1), pages 24-43, April.
    9. Mustafizur Rahman & Wasel Bin Shadat & Narayan Chandra Das, 2006. "Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model," CPD Working Paper 61, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    10. Evans S. Osabuohien & Uchenna R. Efobi & John T. Odebiyi & Oluyemi O. Fayomi & Adeleke O. Salami, 2019. "Bilateral Trade Performance in West Africa: A Gravity Model Estimation," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Felicitas Nowak‐Lehmann & Dierk Herzer & Inmaculada Martinez‐Zarzoso & Sebastian Vollmer, 2007. "The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 719-743, September.
    12. Chan‐Hyun Sohn, 2005. "Does The Gravity Model Explain South Korea'S Trade Flows?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 417-430, December.
    13. Antonucci, Daniele & Manzocchi, Stefano, 2006. "Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 157-169, June.
    14. Simwaka, Kisu, 2006. "Dynamics of Malawi’s trade flows: a gravity model approach," MPRA Paper 1122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Walter Isard & Merton J. Peck, 1954. "Location Theory and International and Interregional Trade Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 97-114.
    16. Felicitas Nowak‐Lehmann & Dierk Herzer & Inmaculada Martinez‐Zarzoso & Sebastian Vollmer, 2007. "The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 719-743, September.
    17. Walter Isard, 1954. "Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 305-320.
    18. Shaista Khan & Ihtisham ul Haq & Dilawar Khan, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade: A Gravity Model Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(48), pages 103-120, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    2. Farha Fatema & Mohammad Monirul Islam, 2020. "Driving Forces of Marine Fisheries and Seafood Export of Bangladesh: Augmented Gravity Model Approach," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(2), pages 106-122, June.
    3. Mohammad ALAWIN & Ziad ABU-LILA, 2016. "Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    4. Čipkutė Eivilė, 2016. "The Gravity Model for Assessing Trade Patterns: The Case of Baltic States," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(3), pages 81-97, December.
    5. Iman Pal & Saibal Kar, 2021. "Gravity Models in International Trade: An Exploration in Econo-Physics," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 72-104, June.
    6. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," MPRA Paper 53292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mario Larch & Aiko F. Schmeißer & Joschka Wanner, 2021. "A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients: The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 242-260, March.
    8. Julian Frede & Hakan Yetkiner, 2017. "The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 633-648, August.
    9. David M. Kemme & Bhavik Parikh & Tanja Steigner, 2021. "Inequality, autocracy, and sovereign funds as determinants of foreign portfolio equity flows," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 249-278, June.
    10. Kenichi Kashiwagi & Erraach Yamna & Lamia Arfa & Lokman Zaibet, 2020. "Growing Olive Oil Export and Intra-Industry Trade in Mediterranean Countries: Application of Gravity Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-16, August.
    11. Semih Karacan & Özge Korkmaz, 2022. "Turkish Exports Before and After the 2001 Financial Crisis: A Panel Gravity Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(1), pages 27-40, February.
    12. Claudio Candia Campano & Medardo Aguirre González & Lilliam Antón López & Javier Beltrán Valdebenito, 2018. "A gravity model of trade for Nicaraguan agricultural exports," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, vol. 37(74), pages 391-428, July.
    13. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," MPRA Paper 53292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    15. Claudio Candia Campano & Medardo Aguirre González & Lilliam Antón López & Javier Beltrán Valdebenito, 2018. "A gravity model of trade for Nicaraguan agricultural exports," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, vol. 37(74), pages 391-428, July.
    16. Michael A. Allen, 2018. "The Influence of Regional Power Distributions on Interdependence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(5), pages 1072-1099, May.
    17. Ahcar, Jaime, 2018. "Colombia’s potential for trade with the European Union and other major global markets," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    18. N. Nergiz Dincer & Ayça Tekin-Koru & Pinar Yaşar, 2018. "Costs of a missing FTA: the case of Turkey and Algeria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 489-505, August.
    19. Shanping Yang & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013. "A Panel Data Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 224, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Majid Ahmadi & Nathan Durst & Jeff Lachman & John A. List & Mason List & Noah List & Atom T. Vayalinkal, 2022. "Nothing Propinks Like Propinquity: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Effects of Spatial Proximity in the Major League Baseball Draft," NBER Working Papers 30786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Fuzzy logic; Foreign trade; Exports.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:ijebaa:v:vii:y:2019:i:4:p:102-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://ijeba.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ijeba.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.