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A Multifaceted Panel Data Gravity Model Analysis of Peru’s Foreign Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Xu WANG

    () (Shanghai, China.)

  • Ryan P. BADMAN

    () (Cornell University, USA.)

Abstract

Peru’s abundant natural resources and friendly trade policies have made the country a major economic player in both South America and the global community. Consequently, exports are playing an increasingly important role in Peru’s national economy. Indeed, growing from 13.1% as of 1994, exports now contribute approximately 21% of the GDP of Peru as of 2015.Given Peru’s growing global influence, the time is ripe for a thorough analysis of the most important factors governing its export performance. Thus, within the framework of the augmented gravity model of trade, this paper examines Peru’s export performance and attempts to identify the dominant economic factors that should be further developed to increase the value of exports. The analysis was conducted from three different aspects: (1) general economic parameters’ effect on Peru’s export value, (2) more specific analysis into a major specific trade good, copper, and (3) the impact that regional trade agreements have had on Peru’s export performance. Our panel data analysis results for each dataset revealed interesting economic trends and were consistent with the theoretical expectations of the gravity model: namely positive coefficients for economic size and negative coefficients for distance. This report’s results can be a reference for the proper direction of Peruvian economic policy so as to enhance economic growth in a sustainable direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu WANG & Ryan P. BADMAN, 2016. "A Multifaceted Panel Data Gravity Model Analysis of Peru’s Foreign Trade," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 562-577, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:3:y:2016:i:4:p:562-577
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Ruta & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "International Trade in Natural Resources: Practice and Policy," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 331-352, August.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    3. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & A Li, Carmen, 2004. "Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: Evidence from Latin American Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 667-689.
    4. Peter Chow & Mitchell Kellman Yochanan, 1999. "A test of the Linder hypothesis in Pacific NIC trade 1965-1990," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 175-182.
    5. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    6. Deluna, Roperto Jr, 2013. "Trade Performance and Potential of the Philippines: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 51677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; Fixed effect; Random effect; Instrumental variables GMM regression; Exports; Copper; Panel data; Peru; Regional trade agreements;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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