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The Relationship Between Credit and Business Cycles in Central America and the Dominican Republic

This study provides evidence of the relationship between credit and real activity in Central America and the Dominican Republic. We address the empirics of the link between credit and real activity for the case of a group of developing countries with limited financial markets where bank credit is the main source of external finance for the private sector. We compile information of credit to the private sector and the aggregate economic activity for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and the DR. The data is analyzed using simple statistical tools (Granger causality tests and spectral analysis) to identify stylized facts on the credit-activity relationship. We find a positive relationship between credit and real activity in frequencies associated to business cycles for all countries. The credit - economic relationship in cycles lasting 10 or more years seems relevant in Costa Rica and the DR. There is evidence suggesting that credit precedes economic activity at business cycles frequencies in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and the DR. Excluding Nicaragua, this pattern is observed also in cycles over 8 years for mentioned economies. In case of Guatemala there is no evidence of statistical precedence of credit to economic activity.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50332/1/The_Relationship_Between_Credit_and_Business_Cycles.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50332.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50332
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  1. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2012. "Asset Prices, Credit and the Business Cycle," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  4. José Eduardo Gómez & Jair Ojeda Joya & Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Héctor Manuel Zárate Solano, 2013. "The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010833, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
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