IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/cml/incocp/5en-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

The Relation Between Credit and Business Cycles in Central America and the Dominican Republic

In: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco A. Ramírez de León

    () (Banco Central de la República Dominicana)

Abstract

This study provides evidence of the relation between credit and real activity in Central America and the Dominican Republic (DR). The link between credit and real activity is addressed for the case of a group of developing countries with limited financial markets where bank credit is the main source of external finance for the private sector. We compile information of credit to the private sector and the aggregate economic activity for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and the DR. The data is analyzed using simple statistical tools (Granger causality tests and spectral analysis) to identify stylized facts on the credit-activity relation. We find a positive relation between credit and real activity in frequencies associated to business cycles for all countries. The credit-economic relation in cycles lasting 10 or more years seems relevant in Costa Rica and the DR. There is evidence suggesting that credit precedes economic activity at business cycles frequencies in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and the dr. Excluding Nicaragua, this pattern is observed also in cycles over eight years for mentioned economies. In case of Guatemala there is no evidence of statistical precedence of credit to economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco A. Ramírez de León, 2018. "The Relation Between Credit and Business Cycles in Central America and the Dominican Republic," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 107-131, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cml:incocp:5en-4
    Note: Joint Research Program XIX Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cemla.org/PDF/ic/2018-jrp-xix/2018-jrp-xix3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    3. Nidia Ruth Reyes & José Eduardo Gómez G. & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2013. "Bank Lending, Risk Taking, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: New Evidence for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010970, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. José Eduardo Gómez & Jair Ojeda Joya & Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Héctor Manuel Zárate Solano, 2013. "The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010833, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 857-861.
    6. repec:col:000094:010860 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit cycle; banking credit; business cycle; developing countries; Central America; Dominican Republic.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cml:incocp:5en-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Laura Sibaja-Jiménez). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cemlamx.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.