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Cross country linkages as determinants of procyclicality of loan loss provisions – empirical importance of SURE specification

Listed author(s):
  • Malgorzata A. Olszak

    ()

    (Faculty of Management,University of Warsaw)

  • Mateusz Pipien

    ()

    (Cracow University of Economics, Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland)

Procyclicality in banking may result in financial instability and therefore be destructive to economic growth. The sensitivity of different banking balance sheet and income statement variables to the business cycle is diversified and may be prone to increasing integration of financial markets. In this paper we address the problem of the influence of financial integration on the transmission of economic shocks from one country to another and consequently on the sensitivity of loan loss provisions to the business cycle. We also aim to find out whether earnings management hypotheses are supported throughout the whole business cycle. Application of the SURE approach to 13 OECD countries in 1995-2009 shows that the procyclicality of LLP is statistically significant almost in thewhole sample of countries. Independent of the econometric specification, the earnings management hypotheses are hardly supported.

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File URL: http://www.wz.uw.edu.pl/portaleFiles/5630-Faculty%20of%20M/WP/WPS22013MOLSZAKPIPIEN.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Paper provided by University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management in its series Faculty of Management Working Paper Series with number 22013.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Handle: RePEc:sgm:fmuwwp:22013
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.wz.uw.edu.pl/

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  1. Barth,James R. & Caprio,Gerard & Levine,Ross, 2008. "Rethinking Bank Regulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521709309, September.
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  4. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
  5. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
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  10. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
  11. Raphael Espinoza & Fabio Fornari & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "The Role of Financial Variables in predicting economic activity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 15-46, 01.
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  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 63-111, April.
  15. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  16. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2012. "Effects of Loan Loss Provisions on Growth in Bank Lending: Some International Comparisons," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 91-116.
  17. Chen, Xiaofen, 2007. "Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 356-390, March.
  18. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
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  27. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q4-132-3 is not listed on IDEAS
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