IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/53784.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cross Country Linkages as Determinants of Procyclicality of Loan Loss Provisions – Empirical Importance of SURE Specification

Author

Listed:
  • Olszak, Małgorzata
  • Pipień, Mateusz

Abstract

Procyclicality in banking may result in financial instability and therefore be destructive to economic growth. The sensitivity of different banking balance sheet and income statement variables to the business cycle is diversified and may be prone to increasing integration of financial markets. In this paper we address the problem of the influence of financial integration on the transmission of economic shocks from one country to another and consequently on the sensitivity of loan loss provisions to the business cycle. We also aim to find out whether earnings management hypotheses are supported throughout the whole business cycle. Application of the SURE approach to 13 OECD countries in 1995-2009 shows that the procyclicality of LLP is statistically significant almost in thewhole sample of countries. Independent of the econometric specification, the earnings management hypotheses are hardly supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Olszak, Małgorzata & Pipień, Mateusz, 2013. "Cross Country Linkages as Determinants of Procyclicality of Loan Loss Provisions – Empirical Importance of SURE Specification," MPRA Paper 53784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53784
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53784/1/MPRA_paper_53784.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Implementing the Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation and Supervision," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Eric J. Pentecost & Tom Weyman-Jones (ed.), The Financial Crisis and the Regulation of Finance, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 63-111, April.
    8. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    9. Chen, Xiaofen, 2007. "Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 356-390, March.
    10. Raphael Espinoza & Fabio Fornari & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "The Role of Financial Variables in predicting economic activity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 15-46, January.
    11. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    12. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2008. "Banks' procyclical behavior: Does provisioning matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 513-526, December.
    13. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    14. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    15. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    16. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q4-132-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Haq, Mamiza & Heaney, Richard, 2012. "Factors determining European bank risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 696-718.
    18. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2012. "Effects of Loan Loss Provisions on Growth in Bank Lending: Some International Comparisons," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 91-116.
    19. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 14691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marques-Ibanez, David & Molyneux, Phil, 2011. "Efficiency and risk in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1315-1326, May.
    22. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    23. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    24. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    25. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    26. Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
    27. Dietrich, Andreas & Wanzenried, Gabrielle, 2011. "Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 307-327, July.
    28. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    29. Barth,James R. & Caprio,Gerard & Levine,Ross, 2008. "Rethinking Bank Regulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521709309.
    30. Fonseca, Ana Rosa & González, Francisco, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, February.
    31. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Claessens, Stijn & Ayhan Kose, M. & Terrones, Marco E., 2010. "The global financial crisis: How similar? How different? How costly?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 247-264, June.
    33. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    34. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
    35. Beaver, William H. & Engel, Ellen E., 1996. "Discretionary behavior with respect to allowances for loan losses and the behavior of security prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 177-206, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Łukasz Lenart & Mateusz Pipień, 2015. "Empirical Properties of the Credit and Equity Cycle within Almost Periodically Correlated Stochastic Processes - the Case of Poland, UK and USA," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 7(3), pages 169-186, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olszak, Małgorzata & Pipień, Mateusz & Kowalska, Iwona & Roszkowska, Sylwia, 2014. "What drives heterogeneity of loan loss provisions’ procyclicality in the EU?," MPRA Paper 56834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Małgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipień & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2017. "What Drives Heterogeneity of Cyclicality of Loan-Loss Provisions in the EU?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-96, February.
    3. Malgorzata Anna Olszak & Patrycja Chodnicka, 2014. "Do institutional and political factors matter for the efficiency of banking sectors?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(1), pages 40-58, May.
    4. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Sylwia Roszkowska & Iwona Kowalska, 2014. "The effects of capital on bank lending in large EU banks – the role of procyclicality, income smoothing, regulations and supervision," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 52014, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    5. Malgorzata Olszak, 2012. "Macroprudential policy - aim, instruments and institutional architecture (Polityka ostroznosciowa w ujêciu makro - cel, instrumenty i architektura instytucjonalna)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 10(39), pages 7-32.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Amine Tarazi & Agusman Agusman & Gary S. Monroe & Dominic Gasbarro, 2016. "Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Behavior of Banks: Do Information Sharing and Borrower Legal Rights Matter?," Working Papers hal-01316717, HAL.
    8. Ozili, Peterson K, 2017. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Investor Protection and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 80147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Renata Karkowska, 2015. "The role of investment banking in systemic risk profiles. Evidence from a panel of EU banking sectors," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    10. Ozili, Peterson K, 2018. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Investor Protection and the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 80281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2015. "The impact of capital on lending in publicly-traded and privately- held banks in the EU," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 72015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    12. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Sitorus, Djauhari & Tarazi, Amine, 2017. "Abnormal loan growth, credit information sharing and systemic risk in Asian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1208-1218.
    13. Malgorzata Olszak & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Iwona Kowalska & Filip Œwita³a, 2017. "The effect of capital ratio on lending: Do loan-loss provisioning practices matter?," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22017, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    14. de Haan, Leo & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2018. "Timing of banks’ loan loss provisioning during the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 293-303.
    15. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Pramono, Sigid Eko & Tarazi, Amine, 2017. "The procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 911-919.
    16. de Haan, Leo & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2018. "Timing of banks’ loan loss provisioning during the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 293-303.
    17. Ali Ashraf & M. Kabir Hassan & Kyle J. Putnam & Arja Turunen-Red, 2019. "Prudential Regulatory Regimes, Accounting Standards, And Earnings Management In The Banking Industry," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, January.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    20. Balla, Eliana & Rose, Morgan J., 2015. "Loan loss provisions, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 92-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    loan loss provisions; procyclicality; earnings management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53784. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.