Why might climate change not cause conflict? an agent-based computational response
In this paper, we first briefly review the recent literature on climate change, resource scarcity and conflict. This is then followed by introducing an agent based computational model based on the theory of production and conflict which is capable of simulating the dynamics of micro-level resource conflicts. The model considers differences in resource attributes, differentiates between conflict subjects, takes into account bounded rationality, non-linearity and feedback loops, and is enriched by a set of scenarios ranging between mild to severe resource shocks. Our results show that agents tend not to get engage in conflict during mild resource scarcity scenarios as they adapt to the changes and since the decreases in returns to resource predation and increases in their protective practices act as negative feedback loops, discouraging resource predators from allocating further effort to predation. The model results also show that scarcity is more likely to encourage product predation rather than resource predation among the agents.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Herschel I. Grossman, 2001.
"The Creation of Effective Property Rights,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 347-352, May.
- Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2007. "Effective property rights, conflict and growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 127-139, November.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1991.
"The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 503-30, May.
- Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth," NBER Working Papers 3530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Allocation of Talent: Implicationsfor Growth," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 65, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Brenner, Thomas, 2006.
"Agent Learning Representation: Advice on Modelling Economic Learning,"
Handbook of Computational Economics,
in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 895-947
- Thomas Brenner, 2004. "Agent Learning Representation - Advice in Modelling Economic Learning," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2004-16, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
- Betsy Hartmann, 2010. "Rethinking climate refugees and climate conflict: Rhetoric, reality and the politics of policy discourse," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 233-246.
- Kjell Hausken, 2005. "Production and Conflict Models Versus Rent-Seeking Models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 59-93, April.
- Sajal Lahiri, 2010. "Blood diamonds: international policy options for conflict resolution," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 5-20, April.
- A. Muthoo, 2002.
"A Model of the Origins of Basic Property Rights,"
Economics Discussion Papers
546, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Tor A Benjaminsen & Koffi Alinon & Halvard Buhaug & Jill Tove Buseth, 2012. "Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 97-111, January.
- Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Erwin H. Bulte, 2006.
"The Resource Curse Revisited and Revised: A Tale of Paradoxes and Red Herrings,"
CER-ETH Economics working paper series
06/61, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
- Brunnschweiler, Christa N., 2008.
"Cursing the Blessings? Natural Resource Abundance, Institutions, and Economic Growth,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-419, March.
- Christa N. Brunnschweiler, 2006. "Cursing the blessings? Natural resource abundance, institutions, and economic growth," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/51, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Wario R Adano & Ton Dietz & Karen Witsenburg & Fred Zaal, 2012. "Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenyaâ€™s drylands," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 65-80, January.
- Christopher K Butler & Scott Gates, 2012. "African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 23-34, January.
- Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2012. "Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 3-9, January.
- Grossman, Herschel I. & Mendoza, Juan, 2003. "Scarcity and appropriative competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-758, November.
- Shlomi Dinar, 2009. "Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 109-135, February.
- Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007.
"Economics of Conflict: An Overview,"
Handbook of Defense Economics,
- Rune T Slettebak, 2012. "Donâ€™t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 163-176, January.
- Cullen S Hendrix & Idean Salehyan, 2012. "Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 35-50, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44918. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.