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Resource Scarcity and Conflict in Developing Countries

Author

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  • John W. Maxwell

    (Kelley School of Business, Indiana University)

  • Rafael Reuveny

    (School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University)

Abstract

As time passes, renewable resource scarcities are becoming more common. There is increasing evidence that these scarcities are a causal factor in political conflict, especially in developing countries. We present a simple dynamic model of renewable resource and population interaction featuring the possibility of conflict triggered by per capita resource scarcity. In the model, conflict diverts resources away from resource harvesting, increases the death rate, and damages the resource. The two former effects may speed the return to a peaceful steady state. If conflict results in resource destruction, however, it may destabilize the system, leading it towards collapse. Conflict due to renewable resource scarcity could be cyclical, implying recurring phases of conflict. However, such conflict cannot last for ever. We use the model to examine various policy scenarios concerning population control and technical innovations in harvesting and natural resource growth. A key insight of the model is the importance of the bidirectional interplay between conflict and resource scarcity, as opposed to the unidirectional notion that resource scarcity leads to conflict. As such, the model points to the need for the use of simultaneous equation econometric models in empirical investigations of resource scarcity and conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • John W. Maxwell & Rafael Reuveny, 2000. "Resource Scarcity and Conflict in Developing Countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 37(3), pages 301-322, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:37:y:2000:i:3:p:301-322
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassani-Mahmooei, Behrooz & Parris, Brett W., 2013. "Resource scarcity, effort allocation and environmental security: An agent-based theoretical approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 183-192.
    2. Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Why Worry about Climate Change? A Research Agenda," Transfer: Environmental Values, , vol. 17(4), pages 437-470, November.
    3. Zachary Dockstader & Chris T. Bauch & Madhur Anand, 2019. "Interconnections Accelerate Collapse in a Socio-Ecological Metapopulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Hassani Mahmooei, Behrooz & Parris, Brett, 2012. "Why might climate change not cause conflict? an agent-based computational response," MPRA Paper 44918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Daoud, Adel, 2018. "Unifying Studies of Scarcity, Abundance, and Sufficiency," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 208-217.
    6. Kuil, Linda & Carr, Gemma & Prskawetz, Alexia & Salinas, José Luis & Viglione, Alberto & Blöschl, Günter, 2019. "Learning from the Ancient Maya: Exploring the Impact of Drought on Population Dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Rafael Reuveny & John W. Maxwell, "undated". "Conflict and Renewable Resources," Working Papers 2004-26, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    8. Nagase, Yoko & Uehara, Takuro, 2011. "Evolution of population-resource dynamics models," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 9-17.
    9. Attiat F. Ott & Sang Hoo Bae, 2011. "Modeling Mass Killing: For Gain or Ethnic Cleansing?," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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