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Deficit Financed Public Expenditure in Argentina: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis

Author

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  • Mitkov, Yuliyan
  • Pericon, Osvaldo

Abstract

The goal of the paper is to analyze the importance of government debt in the propagation of fiscal shocks in the Argentine economy. For that reason we augment a standard fiscal policy vector Autoregression with the nominal debt to GDP ratio taken from a recently compiled IMF database. The main finding is that government debt has a crucial role for the implications of the model, and that the omission of the feedback of the debt (as a ratio of GDP) to the other variables in the system leads to very different conclusions for the effect of deficit finance government spending on the economy. Finally, we argue that not adding a measure of debt into the model is equivalent to assuming that debt as percentage of GDP is not changing following a deficit financed fiscal shock, which is in direct contraction to the implications of the optimal fiscal policy models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitkov, Yuliyan & Pericon, Osvaldo, 2012. "Deficit Financed Public Expenditure in Argentina: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis," MPRA Paper 42762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 473-501, March.
    4. Hess Chung & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," NBER Working Papers 13425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    6. Evi Pappa, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On Employment And The Real Wage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 217-244, February.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Vector Autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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