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Failure to Launch in Two-Sided Markets: A Study of the U.S. Video Game Market

Author Info

  • Zhou, Yiyi

Abstract

In the dynamic two-sided market environment, overpricing one side of the market not only discourages demand on that side but also discourages participation on the other side. Over time, this process can lead to a death spiral. This paper develops a dynamic structural model of the video game market to study launch failures in two-sided markets. The paper models consumers’ purchase decisions for hardware platforms and affiliated software products and software firms’ entry and pricing decisions. This paper also develops a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate dynamic structural models. The results of the counterfactual simulations show that a failed platform could have survived if it had lowered its hardware prices and that it could not have walked out of the death spiral if it had subsidized software entry.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42002/1/MPRA_paper_42002.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42002.

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Date of creation: 16 Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42002
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Keywords: Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Estimation; Failure to Launch; Two-Sided Market; Indirect Network Effect; Forward-Looking Consumer; Video Game Market;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
  • L68 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Appliances; Furniture; Other Consumer Durables
  • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
  • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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  1. J. Levin & P. Bajari, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," 2004 Meeting Papers 579, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Yingyao Hu & Matthew Shum, 2008. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," CeMMAP working papers CWP13/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  8. Evans David S. & Schmalensee Richard, 2010. "Failure to Launch: Critical Mass in Platform Businesses," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, December.
  9. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1994. "The solution and estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models by simulation and interpolation: Monte Carlo evidence," Staff Report 181, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Ronald L. Goettler & Brett R. Gordon, 2011. "Does AMD Spur Intel to Innovate More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(6), pages 1141 - 1200.
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  12. Caillaud, Bernard & Jullien, Bruno, 2003. " Chicken & Egg: Competition among Intermediation Service Providers," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(2), pages 309-28, Summer.
  13. repec:rje:randje:v:37:y:2006:3:p:720-737 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
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  16. repec:rje:randje:v:37:y:2006:3:p:645-667 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
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Cited by:

  1. David S. Evans & Richard Schmalensee, 2013. "The Antitrust Analysis of Multi-Sided Platform Businesses," NBER Working Papers 18783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Ching & Masakazu Ishihara, 2014. "Dynamic Demand for New and Used Durable Goods without Physical Depreciation: The Case of Japanese Video Games," 2014 Meeting Papers 782, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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