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Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach


  • Bicaba, Zorobabel


This paper makes two important , even if preliminary, methodological contributions to the financial reforms literature. The first contribution is that it introduces a new framework for the metric of sequence analysis, namely, Optimal Matching Sequence Analysis. The second is that it provides an innovative framework namely synthetic counterfactual approach for the assessment of the impact of financial reforms sequence. It shows that the trajectory of financial reforms followed by countries, affects the level and the volatility of GDP per capita growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Bicaba, Zorobabel, 2011. "Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach," MPRA Paper 34057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34057

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2012. "The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," Chapters,in: Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    3. Clarke Wilson, 2006. "Reliability of sequence-alignment analysis of social processes: Monte Carlo tests of ClustalG software," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 38(1), pages 187-204, January.
    4. Conley, John P. & Maloney, William F., 1995. "Optimal sequencing of credible reforms with uncertain outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 151-166, October.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1987. "On the costs of temporary policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 245-261, October.
    6. Paul A. David, 2007. "Path Dependence, its Critics, and the Quest for ‘Historical Economics’," Chapters,in: The Evolution of Economic Institutions, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "On the Sequencing of Structural Reforms," NBER Working Papers 3138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    More about this item


    Financial reforms trajectory Mundell trilemma Optimal matching sequence analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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