IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pcp/pucrev/y2019i84p102-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

El legado económico del general Velasco: consecuencias a largo plazo del intervencionismo

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Vega

    ( Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • César Martinell

    ( George Mason University)

Abstract

We apply synthetic control methods to study the long-term consequences of the interventionistand collectivist reforms implemented by the Peruvian military junta of 1968–1975. We comparelong-term outcomes for the Peruvian economy following the radical reforms of the early 1970swith those of two controls made of similar countries, one chosen in the Latin American regionand another one chosen from the world at large. We find that the economic legacy of the juntaincludes sizable loses in GDP along two decades, beyond those that can be attributed to adverseinternational circumstances. The evidence suggests that those loses can be attributed both to adecline in capital accumulation and to a fall in productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Vega & César Martinell, 2019. "El legado económico del general Velasco: consecuencias a largo plazo del intervencionismo," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 102-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2019:i:84:p:102-133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/21589
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Becker, Martin & Klößner, Stefan, 2018. "Fast and reliable computation of generalized synthetic controls," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Carlos Gustavo Machicado & José Peres-Cajías, 2019. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960-2017," Staff Report 579, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    4. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    5. Grier, Kevin & Maynard, Norman, 2016. "The economic consequences of Hugo Chavez: A synthetic control analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-21.
    6. Martinelli, César & Vega, Marco, 2018. "Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru 1960-2010: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Working Papers 2018-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    8. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2011. "Synth: An R Package for Synthetic Control Methods in Comparative Case Studies," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i13).
    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    10. Shane Hunt, 2011. "La formación de la economía peruana. Distribución y crecimiento en la historia del Perú y América Latina," Libros PUCP / PUCP Books, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, edition 1, number lde-2011-03, September.
    11. Marco Vega & César Martinelli, 2018. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-468, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output loss; Synthetic controls; Military nationalism; Populism; Collectivism; PeruvianRevolution.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2019:i:84:p:102-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/depucpe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.