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The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization

Author

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  • Marco Vega

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • César Martinelli

Abstract

We show that Peru’s chronic inflation through the 1970s and 1980s was the result of the need for inflationary taxation in a regime of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. Hyperinflation occurred when debt accumulation became unavailable, and a populist administration engaged in a counterproductive policy of price controls and loose credit. We interpret the fiscal difficulties preceding the stabilization as a process of social learning to live within the realities of fiscal budget balance. The credibility of the policy regime change in the 1990s may be linked ultimately to the change in public opinion giving proper incentives to politicians, after the traumatic consequences of the hyperstagflation of 1987-1990. JEL Classification-JEL: E52 , E58 , E62

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Vega & César Martinelli, 2018. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-468, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00468
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Timothy Besley & Ethan Ilzetzki & Torsten Persson, 2013. "Weak States and Steady States: The Dynamics of Fiscal Capacity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 205-235, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Vega & César Martinell, 2019. "The Economic Legacy of General Velasco: Long-Term Consequences of Interventionism," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 102-133.
    2. Martinelli, Cesar & Vega, Marco, 2019. "The economic legacy of General Velasco: Long-term consequences of interventionism," Working Papers 2019-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2019. "On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World," NBER Working Papers 26333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hyperstagflation; Inflation; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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