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Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Dancourt

    (Departamento de Economía- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Waldo Mendoza

    (Departamento de Economía- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Leopoldo Vilcapoma

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to describe the characteristics of business cycle in Peru during 1950-1996, and to show the importance of external shocks for these economic fluctuations. The pattern of economic fluctuations in Peru, in particular the pattern of recessions, seems to be independent of the growth strategy followed (ISI or export of raw materials). The periods of recession are periods of accelerating inflation and of balance of payments crises. Five out of six of the identified recessions are associated with adverse external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Dancourt & Waldo Mendoza & Leopoldo Vilcapoma, 1997. "Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 1997-135, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00135
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Mejía-Reyes, 2000. "Asymmetries and Common Cycles in Latin America: Evidence from Markov-Switching Models," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 189-225, July-Dece.
    2. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    3. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    4. Dancourt, Oscar, 1999. "Neoliberal reforms and macroeconomic policy in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    5. Junior A. Ojeda Cunya & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR- SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-507, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    6. Alex Coad & Gregory Scott, 2018. "High-growth firms in Peru," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(75), pages 671-696, May.
    7. Javier Torres & Alexandra Málaga & Rodrigo Chang, 2019. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Transfers for a Latin American Small Open Economy: The Perils of Earmarked Transfers," Working Papers 155, Peruvian Economic Association.
    8. Dancourt, Óscar & Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2010. "Perú: Lecciones de la recesión de 2008-2009 [Peru: Lessons from the recession of 2008-2009]," MPRA Paper 74889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gabriel Rodríguez & Pierina Villanueva Vega & Paul Castillo Bardalez, 2018. "Driving economic fluctuations in Peru: the role of the terms of trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1089-1119, November.
    10. Marco Vega & César Martinelli, 2018. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-468, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

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