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Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996


  • Oscar Dancourt

    () (Departamento de Economía- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Waldo Mendoza

    () (Departamento de Economía- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Leopoldo Vilcapoma


The main goal of this paper is to describe the characteristics of business cycle in Peru during 1950-1996, and to show the importance of external shocks for these economic fluctuations. The pattern of economic fluctuations in Peru, in particular the pattern of recessions, seems to be independent of the growth strategy followed (ISI or export of raw materials). The periods of recession are periods of accelerating inflation and of balance of payments crises. Five out of six of the identified recessions are associated with adverse external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Dancourt & Waldo Mendoza & Leopoldo Vilcapoma, 1997. "Fluctuaciones económicas y shocks externos, Perú 1950-1996," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 1997-135, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00135

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    Cited by:

    1. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
    2. Dancourt, Oscar, 1999. "Neoliberal reforms and macroeconomic policy in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. repec:col:000093:017124 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dancourt, Óscar & Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2010. "Perú: Lecciones de la recesión de 2008-2009
      [Peru: Lessons from the recession of 2008-2009]
      ," MPRA Paper 74889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1318-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gabriel Rodríguez & Pierina Villanueva Vega & Paul Castillo Bardalez, 2018. "Driving economic fluctuations in Peru: the role of the terms of trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1089-1119, November.

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